ATFXForeign exchange market: The offshore RMB appreciated significantly, but fell below the intraday limit yesterday7.3Gateway

U.S.ACPIAs the data is about to be released, the US dollar index plummeted on Monday, driving offshore yuan appreciation0.85%, implementation3month14The largest daily appreciation since the beginning of the day, the exchange rate on that day（USDCNH）Lowest touch7.292Breakthrough7.3000Gateway. On the message surface,9month11Day, nationwideforeign exchangeThe special meeting on market self-discipline mechanism was held in Beijing, and it was believed that maintaining basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level has a solid foundation. The meeting is extremely important for stabilizing market confidence, and the significant appreciation of the offshore RMB is a direct reflection of the effectiveness of the meeting.


From a technical perspective,USDCNHLast Five DaysKThe line is about to form a "top fractal" resistance structure, if the closing price today is lower than7.3682, it is possible for the short term to initiate a callback.MAThe multi head arrangement of the moving average system has been disrupted,MA10andMA20There is a slight lack of upward momentum due to a crossover.8month24From now on,MACDThe absolute value of the column line is too small, indicating thatKThe line oscillation characteristic is stronger than the trend characteristic.KDThe values of the indicators are65/68，9month8dayKValue has reached80Above the overbought line, it is currently in a downward phase. Overall, multiple indicators prove thatUSDCNHThe bull trend is nearing its end, and the downward band may be approaching.

From a macro perspective, the United States8monthCPIThe annual growth rate will be tomorrow20:30Published, the former value is3.2%Expected value increase0.4Percentage points to3.6%。 coreCPIThe annual growth rate was announced at the same time, with the previous value being4.7%Expected to decrease0.4Percentage points to4.3%. nameCPIAnd the coreCPIOne increase and one decrease means that the high prices in the United States due to energy prices are bottoming out and rebounding, while prices other than energy and food are steadily declining. For the Federal Reserve, the coreCPIThe data is more informative, so if tomorrow's data release meets expectations,9month21The probability of the Japanese Federal Reserve raising interest rates will decrease, and the US index will be impacted, and the offshore RMB may appreciate significantly again.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-09-12