Guide Metallographer:9.12Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices have expanded and rebounded, exacerbating volatility

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(9month11day)Expanding rebound to maintain volatility, opening price1919.71dollar/Ounces, highest price1930.54dollar/Ounces, lowest price1916.28dollar/Ounces, closing price1922.83dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The economic data released on Monday is relatively scarce.


The New York Federal Reserve released a report on Monday stating that,8The overall view of Americans on inflation has not changed much in the month, with predictions that prices of rent, housing, and food will rise, while their views on personal financial conditions have been lowered. The respondents believe that the inflation rates in one year, three years, and five years will be3.6%、2.8%and3%(7Month is3.5%、2.9%and2.9%). Expected price increases for gasoline, food, rent, medical expenses, and university tuition fees. Expected increase in housing prices3.1%, for2022year7The highest since the beginning of the month. Respondents are more pessimistic about obtaining credit and their current and future financial situation. They predict that household income will increase2.9%, for2021year7The lowest since the beginning of the month. The number of households with harder access to credit has reached a historic high. At the same time, respondents are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the job market.


Head of US interest rate strategy at Societe Generale in FranceSubadra RajappaIt is still very likely that the US economy will enter a recession, and the recession is expected to arrive in the middle of next year rather than at the beginning of the year. The economic data planned to be released this week will guide the market towards the actions that the Federal Reserve will take next week, as well as11Is there an expectation of a monthly interest rate hike. "We see higher spending in the summer. Consumers have shown extraordinary resilience, but as the suspension period of student loans ends, savings rates begin to decline and default rates begin to rise. I believe consumers will begin to face greater pressure in the fourth quarter of this year. This may curb the rise in US yields."RajappaHe said that the current short-term treasury bond is attractive. "I believe the market has fully digested the scenario that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time. If the economy does indeed begin to slow down and the Federal Reserve begins to shift towards policy easing or relatively loose policies, then the front end of the curve will begin to rebound."


Italian Investment CompanyGenerali InvestmentsSenior EconomistMartin WolburgIn a report, it was pointed out that Thursday's meeting of the European Central Bank will take place amidst strong divergent signals regarding the next steps. Inflation expectations remain high, and the negotiated annual wage growth rate exceeds4%Unprecedented in the history of the eurozone, this clearly means that medium-term price stability is under threat, and therefore policies need to continue to be tightened. However, economic activity data unexpectedly declined. He said, "Although this will be a very close decision, we ultimately expect the European Central Bank to..."9Avoid raising interest rates again at the monthly meeting He expects this decision to have a hawkish bias.


UBS economists have stated in a research report that weak business investment is the main culprit behind slow economic growth in Germany. Surprisingly, the reason for Germany's poor economic performance may be the service sector, not manufacturing. Under the influence of unfavorable factors such as lack of investment, severe bureaucratic style, and aging population61%The Germans believe that the economy is deteriorating,IFOThe business confidence index has dropped to2022The level during the most severe period of the annual energy crisis. The weakness of German investment is particularly prominent, and the decrease in total fixed investment almost explains why Germany has2019All differences in growth performance compared to France, Italy, and Spain since the fourth quarter of the year. Meanwhile, Germany's service industry(Especially in trade, tourism, accommodation, and entertainment)Growth lags behind other countries, while manufacturing, although weak, actually performs better than other countries.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day1.75Tons, current position is884.89Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate maintained at5.25%-5.50%The constant probability is93%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.50%-5.75%The probability of the interval is7%； reach11The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is56.9%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is40.4%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is2.7%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain7Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　14:00britain8Monthly unemployment rate


　　14:00britain8Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits


　　17:00Germany9monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone9monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　18:00U.S.A8monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index


Technical analysis of gold:


From a technical analysis perspective, gold has previously surged to1953USD, and then from1946The US dollar fell to1915US dollars. current1915The US dollar is a key support that has been tested multiple times but has not broken through. From the daily chart, the rebound after the price decline forms a horizontal trend, which is not enough to form a bottom. We all know that a bottom does not rebound, and a rebound is not a bottom. Otherwise, it can only be a relay decline pattern. The moving average system may have a short-term trend of turning heads, but the price is clearly flying up and down. From a historical perspective, there are only two possible scenarios for this horizontal trend: one is to break the balance with a significant increase in fundamentals, and the other is to trade time for a correction in spatial indicators, and prices will once again open up new bearish positions. This was also reflected in Friday's surge and fall. The upward oscillation of the disk also follows5Daily moving average, but clearly10The daily moving average directly breaks through two medium and long-term moving averages, so thisKBecoming priced at5Japan and Japan10The competition for the daily moving average has always been suppressed10Below the daily moving average, so continue to focus on the range until the daily chart clearly shows a turning point1915-1930Range breaking situation, rebound not possible1930For the time being, it will be used as a potential downward break after a weak correction.


Looking at the four hour chart, the price of gold is touching1915After support, there is currently a steady rebound trend, and the suppression level currently faced above is1928-1930section.4Entering the small box range during the hour, the horizontal time is slightly longer. At the beginning of the week, we still need to wait for the breakthrough of the range to determine the short-term bullish and bearish continuation space. The Bollinger Road is still tightly closed. Considering that the news is concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday, the two trading days at the beginning of the week may still be in a sawing and oscillating within the range. In terms of short-term operation, let's first look at the range oscillation. Currently under temporary pressure1930One area. However, the slowdown in the upward trend of the US dollar has made it difficult for gold to move out of space in the short term1In the hourly chart,BOLLThe line shows that the market is in a horizontal operation state. However, there have been some temporary signs of a stop in the decline during the short cycle,1915It is the first level of support in the short term. If this level breaks through, it may lead to further decline and may be tested1900From a comprehensive perspective, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts. The main focus is on rebounding and short selling, supplemented by a pullback and long selling. The short-term focus should be on the upper part1928-1930Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1900-1904Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm


　　9.12Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1928-1930Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1915-1910Nearby, break down and take a look1905frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1903-1905Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1910-1915Nearby, break down and take a look1920frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)