Ultima MarketsMarket Review and Prospects: The US dollar is once again strong, with the European Central Bank benefiting...

Last week's market review

Last week, against the backdrop of the strong US dollar, both non US currencies and metals showed a certain downward trend. In terms of monetary policy, both the Federal Reserve of Australia and the Bank of Canada have chosen to remain calm and wait for more economic data before making decisions. At the same time, strong US data suggests that inflation cannot be taken lightly.ISMUnexpected increase in non manufacturing index54.5Last week, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits also hit a new low for the second half of the year, indicating that the labor market still has resilience, once again strengthening market expectations for the Federal Reserve's tightening.

Market outlook

In terms of data this week, the UK will release the latest8The monthly unemployment rate, against the backdrop of a sluggish economic outlook in the UK, has become a barometer of the pound's trend this week. And the United States8End of Month Seasonal AdjustmentCPIData and8The monthly retail sales rate is a key data that the market is paying attention to. If inflation data remains stubborn, the US dollar is still expected to rise. In addition, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision this week is one of the factors determining whether the euro can stop its decline.

britain8Monthly unemployment rate

UK releases latest updates on Tuesday8Monthly unemployment data. Previous manufacturing industryPMIThe final data confirms a downward trend, shrinking for the sixth consecutive month. Manufacturers are forced to reduce their business operations and lay off employees, and reassess their business prospects in the remaining period of this year and the fiercely competitive economic environment. If the job market shows weakness, although inflationary pressure decreases, the outlook for the UK economy may be interpreted as sluggish by the market.

crude oilThree major reports

This Tuesday and Wednesday,OPEC、EIAandIEAThe latest market reports will be released one after another. last weekEIACrude oil inventory approaching3A new high of six months, with two oil companies from the United States and Brazil approaching1The annual high fell. The market focuses on whether there is a clear probability of a decline in the balance of future supply and demand, and crude oil may experience a significant decline.

European Central Bank interest rate resolution

9The European Central Bank's interest rate resolution will finally make the latest decision on Thursday this week.8OfCPIThe data is still rising, and the European Central Bank is raising interest rates this time25The probability of a base point is very high, but due to the poor economic data in the eurozone, the hawk and dove factions will inevitably pull together. Officials within the European Central Bank are questioning whether it is necessary to further tighten monetary policy, or whether the deteriorating economic outlook is so bleak that it is worth suspending interest rate hikes.

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