Ultima MarketsMarket Review and Prospects: The Australian Federal Reserve is in urgent need of unexpected developments...

Last week's market review

Last week's UK manufacturing industryPMIRecorded43, up to39A month low highlights the challenges in the manufacturing industry. OPECcrude oilIncrease production to daily2782Ten thousand barrels, but stable output and Saudi Arabia's production restrictions have offset Iran's increase in production. US non-farm employment report shows new additions18.7Ten thousand job positions, unemployment rate rising to3.8%. The market is cautious about the policy outlook of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

Overall, last week's US dollar index fluctuated significantly due to data reasons, with the weekly final closing as a cross star. It is difficult to say who is currently above the bulls and bears in a game state. The US dollar index rose due to hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed Chairman Maester0.64%, received at104.28。goldPrices briefly broke through after the non agricultural report1950USD, but due to the Pour cold water Fall back, down about20USD, ending at1939.9dollar/Ounces. Silver has fallen for three consecutive trading days, with a decline of1.05%。

Market outlook

This week, the Australian Federal Reserve, which has suspended interest rate hikes for two consecutive months, welcomed two major central bank interest rate resolutions and7Monthly interest rate hike25The Bank of Canada based on the basis point. Both in9We may choose to suspend interest rate hikes on a monthly basis, and the latter will also release the latest employment data on Friday. In terms of other financial data, European countries will release the latestPMIFinal value, low impact. The United States will release its latestISMAfter the data was released in the labor market, the market focused on whether the current state of the US economy could clarify the end point of the subsequent interest rate hike cycle.

It's hard to have any unexpected surprises from the Australian Federal Reserve

It is expected that the Federal Reserve of Australia will maintain its official cash rate unchanged at the upcoming policy meeting, at4.1%. The latest economic data shows a decrease in inflation rate, weak wage growth, and sluggish consumption, all of which have intensified concerns about the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve of Australia may maintain its continued focus on further interest rate hikes in policy guidance, but it is unlikely to make substantive changes at this meeting.

The Bank of Canada needs to change

7The Bank of Canada chose to raise interest rates in June25Base point, but unexpected follow-upGDPThe weak data may increase the possibility of a mild contraction, with economic growth in the second quarter lower than expected. In addition, the rise in Canada's unemployment rate and the cooling of core inflation rate may lead to the central bank suspending interest rate hikes in the short term.

The Federal Reserve Seeking Data Support

The United States is about to announce this WednesdayISMService industryPMIdata Due to the market turmoil caused by last week's speech by Federal Reserve officials, any financial data on the state of the US economy this week will be magnified for observation. Consumption as one of the three economic carriages of the United States, if the service industry this weekISMIf the data rises again, the US dollar may start an upward trend again.

Disclaimers

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