Ultima MarketsMarket Hot Spots: The Big Play is Coming Soon, Be Alert to the US Dollar Index...

Federal Reserve9The key data before the monthly interest rate decision was mostly released this week. From the actual announcement, the mixed data has raised market expectations9The probability of suspending interest rate hikes on a monthly basis is higher.

U.S.A7Monthly CorePCEPrice index annual rate recorded4.2%, which was consistent with expectations, but the month on month growth rate relatively slowed down. In addition, the month on month growth of personal consumption expenditure after inflation adjustment0.6%, achieving the highest growth rate in half a year. Although inflation data fluctuates at high levels, it remains stable to some extent.

The mild rise in inflation data has affected market sentiment towards9Expectations for monthly interest rate hikes. The market is crucial for9The probability of monthly interest rate hikes fluctuates slightly, with two data on Thursday indicating that inflation in the United States continues to rise, and the probability of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate hikes slightly decreasing1Points.

(Probability of Federal Reserve Rate hikes, sourced from ChiNext)

The probability of suspending interest rate hikes is as high as9The main reason for the success is still that the labor market has started to cool down, and employment data is the key to determining the wallet in medium to long-term consumption, which further affects price levels.

The recent data on the number of initial applicants for unemployment benefits shows a positive trend, indicating that the labor market is still relatively healthy. However, small non farmersADPIt shows that the growth rate of employment is likely to slow down, which may bring pressure to economic growth.

（ADPData has been declining twice in the past two months

However, it is worth noting that the non agricultural employment data released by the Ministry of Labor tonight is clearly at the forefront of importance and even more important. Despite yesterday's high inflation, the US dollar index was hindered200The cyclical moving average rebounded upwards.

Daily cycle of the US dollar index, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

Based on the non agricultural and agricultural sectors since the beginning of this yearADPThe correlation between the two is starting to decrease, and if today's non farm report still indicates a strong labor market, the US dollar index is highly likely to recover from its decline this week. But non agricultural reports such asADPEven worse, it is not easy to bet too much on the downward trend of the US dollar index. After all, the probability of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate hikes has been maintained for a long time, and this week's economic data has already given the market some expectations. Be wary of the possible trend of buying and selling expectations tonight.

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