ATFXCurrency Market: Australia7monthCPIAnnual rate decrease4.9%The Australian dollar depreciates within five minutes18...

today9:30，澳大利亚统计局公布7Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPI年率数据，最新值4.9%, lower than the previous value5.4%, lower than expected5.2%. This is from2022year2月份以来的最低通胀率，但仍远高于澳洲联储2%~3%的调控目标。CPI数据公布后，AUDUSD短线小幅下挫，9:30~9:35的五分钟K线，开盘价0.6473Closing0.6455, decline18基点。汇率的下跌意味着市场人士认为更低的通胀率数据有损于澳元币值稳定。


2023year12月份，澳大利亚的通胀率曾达到8.4%，创出数十年以来新高，此后整体保持回落态势，驱动因素是澳洲联储激进的加息政策。2022年初，澳大利亚的基准利率仅为0.1%，至今日，基准利率已经高达4.1%，翻41倍。但是，7月份澳洲联储利率决议结果维持基准利率不变，原因是通胀率已经大幅下降，高通胀问题已经大大缓解。比较来看，美国的基准利率为5.5%，高于澳大利亚1.4个百分点，美元资产更具比较优势。长期看，澳元兑美元持续贬值的可能性更大。


From a technical perspective,AUDUSDstay2month22Solstice29日形成底分形结构，支撑位0.6380；同期，MACD柱线翻越零轴由绿变红，这是趋势由空转多的信号。底部双信号确认之下，本周AUDUSD有望开启反弹走势。风险点在于，过去一个月时间里，美元指数维持强势上涨态势，此时预判澳元反弹存在逆势交易问题。另外，本周五的非农就业报告将冲击汇市，AUDUSD可能出现剧烈波动，建议谨慎型交易者场外观望。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-08-30