Ultima MarketsDon't compete for salt now, let's take a look at the rice!

The dumping of nuclear sewage into the ocean in Japan has led to a 30% reduction in the price of Japanese abalone, a weakening trend in the price of scallops, and even exaggerated scenes of rushing to buy salt in China. Compared to the abundant and diversified salt production capacity in China, people can pay more attention to the tight supply of rice.

There are several "bad news" coming from the rice market on weekends - Myanmar plans to8Starting from the end of the month for a period of45Tian's rice export restrictions. On the same day, the Indian government issued a notice imposing a tax on semi cooked rice20%Export tariffs of. India sets the minimum export price for fragrant rice at per ton1200USD.

In fact, the current food crisis is gradually approaching. At the end of July, India, the world's largest rice exporter, suddenly announced restrictions on its own rice exports. At the same time, countries such as Russia and the United Arab Emirates have also joined the ranks of restricting exports, further exacerbating the uncertainty of the rice market. Especially in7month29On August 1st, Russia announced that it will continue to restrict the export of domestic rice, and this ban will be extended until this year12end of month.

(Price of coarse rice, sourced from Zhishang Institute)

The problem of global rice supply not only stems from natural and man-made disasters, but also involves changes in the international situation. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not eased to this day. As both countries are food exporting countries, they mainly export wheat and barley. With the tense situation, the prices of wheat and barley have also increased, which has affected rice, the world's main staple food. Russia's announcement to halt grain exports has further exacerbated the supply pressure on the global rice market.

(Asset management funds have a clear trend of long positions in coarse rice, sourced from Zhishang Exchange)

At present, according to data from Zhishang Exchange, asset management funds are currently betting that the price of coarse rice will continue to rise. However, in the short term, it is actually difficult for rice to have a healthy upward trend due to overcrowded bulls, and additional catalysts are needed to allow the price of coarse rice to have a downward trend first, so that the price of coarse rice may have a further upward trend in the future.

Due to the fact that rice, as a livelihood commodity, is not like oil, demand is long-term and difficult to decline. Therefore, any restrictive measures on the supply side will lead to potential upward fluctuations in rice prices. Due to sufficient reserves in granaries in China, people do not need to worry too much about not being able to buy, but the overall price trend may slowly rise.

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