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Last week's market review

The Jackson Hall meeting finally came to an end, and after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed a dovish attitude, the volatility of the US dollar index and related currencies was significant, and ultimately remained at the price level before last Friday's speech. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is still expected by the market at present20%At the end of the year, there is still a probability of over 50% interest rate hikes.

The entanglement and ambiguity in Powell's final wording ultimately stem from the current dual pressures - price pressures and economic recession pressures. Prices remain high, and the manufacturing industry announced by Europe, America, and the UK last weekPMIThe data shows a downward trend that is less than expected, indicating that the current tightening policies have been effective and are beginning to exert pressure on the economy.

Market outlook

The main players in the market this week are the eurozone and the United States. Both will release the latest inflation data and labor market data, while the European Central Bank will also release the former7Monthly monetary policy minutes. In addition, Japan will also release the latest unemployment rate data. Australia to announce7End of Month Seasonal AdjustmentCPI. This week's economic data is abundant, and market volatility is about to rise. Investors should pay attention to their positions.

Unemployment rate in Japan

Japan will announce on Tuesday7Monthly unemployment rate data. before 6Unemployment in the monthFor the first time in two months, the rate has decreased to2.5%, also1The lowest level since the beginning of the month. The abundance of employed people implies a potential upward trend in wages, which helps the Bank of Japan maintain inflation and is to some extent the key to whether the yen can stop depreciation.

Wednesday Australia7End of Month Seasonal AdjustmentCPI

Australia to announce on Wednesday7End of Month Seasonal AdjustmentCPIdata Service sector inflation has always been a particular concern of the Federal Reserve of Australia,6Monthly service industry inflation has reached6.3%of22Annual high point. if7The month remains high, and the probability of the Australian Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the next interest rate resolution will skyrocket.

Eurozone data

The eurozone will release more data on Thursday, whether it is8monthCPIData or7Monthly unemployment rate, or7The monthly monetary policy minutes will all affect the direction of the euro exchange rate this week. The weekly trend continues to decline6Two weeks later, the euro has already touched against the US dollar65In the weekly moving average area, if the data suggests that prices still have upward momentum, the European Central Bank9The expectation of a monthly interest rate hike will drive the exchange rate to rebound.

US data

stay8Month and9In the week of month after month, the market will welcome another heavyweight labor employment data from the United States. Announced in the United States on ThursdayADPData, Friday is8Monthly non farm employment data and unemployment rate. Previously, from the United States to8month19Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week23Ten thousand people, a new low in three weeks, indicating that the labor market is still tense. If non farm data remains the same, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates will not be limited to20%。

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.Ultima MarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.Ultima MarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.