CPT MarketsThe Japanese authorities have not yet made a positive statement on the exchange rate! Germany Q2...

dollar/Japanese yen (USDJPY)：

The US dollar rose slightly against the Japanese yen last Friday146.42Nearby, as the US economy continues to show resilience, the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time. It is puzzling that the US dollar against the Japanese yen has reached the level of intervention by the Japanese authorities last year, but to this day, the Japanese authorities still remain silent.

At the beginning of last week, in the United States10Yields of one-year treasury bond bonds hit a record2007year11New high since the beginning of the month4.366%Since the beginning of this month, the cumulative increase has been close to40A basis point, as various sectors believe that the US economy remains resilient, the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at high levels for a long time. Although the yield was subsequently affected by S&P's global announcement of the United States8Monthly Purchasing Managers IndexPMIDespite poor performance and a significant decline, the subsequent release of initial unemployment claims indicates that the job market is still quite strong, and an increase in durable goods orders indicates sustained growth in corporate investment, leading to a rebound in US bond yields. In addition, last week the US dollar touched against the Japanese yen for the first time in about nine months145The key level has entered last year's9Month and10The month triggered intervention by the Japanese authorities, but the Japanese authorities did not actively express their stance on the yen exchange rate as before, and even the Prime Minister did not discuss exchange rate issues during their meeting with the central bank governor this week. This inevitably raises curiosity about the adjustments made by the Japanese authorities in their game strategy with the market.

In terms of financial event data last Friday, the University of Michigan in the United States announced8The monthly consumer confidence index fell below expectations69.5A decline in consumer confidence means a decline in consumption and economic fatigue. In terms of inflation data, the Statistics Bureau under the Ministry of General Affairs of Japan has released8monthCPIThe monthly rate is lower than the previous period to2.9%and0.1%The core annual rate is expected to decrease year-on-year to2.8%This indicates a easing of inflationary pressure in the country.

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 146.40，146.90； From the downward direction, the lower support146.00。

euro/pound (EURGBP)：

After a slight increase in the closing price of the euro against the pound last Friday, consolidation occurred0.8580Nearby, the decision maker of the European Central Bank and the President of the German Central BankJoachim NagelWith the President of the Croatian National Bank and members of the European Central Bank's Board of DirectorsBoris VujcicDefend the hawkish tendencies of the central bank. However, concerns about economic stagnation are cited to emphasize data dependence, which in turn benefits euro bears.

Netherlands International GroupINGEconomists predict that Lagarde will adhere to a data dependency and hawkish tone. They believe that Lagarde has recently lowered expectations for a eurozone interest rate hike in the market (9The expected monthly interest rate hike is only40%) Feeling dissatisfied, she may prefer to continue ignoring some evidence of deteriorating economic growth and insisting on relying solely on data. Ultimately, if inflation unexpectedly rises, they believe that9The possibility of a monthly interest rate hike will increase significantly, especially considering the deteriorating growth outlook, which means this may be the last opportunity for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. After Lagarde's speech today, there is still room for further tightening. In addition, in the fight against stubborn inflation, the Bank of England has raised interest rates to5.25%The consequences are affecting British businesses, forcing some to declare bankruptcy due to their inability to pay interest. The ongoing Consumer Price Index in the UKCPIInflation and the resulting decrease in household real income have led to weak retail sales, depicting a bleak demand environment. This forces companies to reduce their operational capabilities. Market participants expect that as the Bank of England prepares to9The consequences of the Bank of England raising interest rates will further expand as monetary policy is further tightened in the month.

Last Friday, in terms of financial event data, the German Bureau of Statistics announced the second quarterGDPThe annual quarterly rate is maintained at-0.6%and0%This reflects that Germany's gross domestic product remains at a fixed level. In addition,IfoAnnounced by economic research institutions8The monthly business indices have all fallen compared to expectations, reflecting a general lack of confidence in the economic outlook of enterprises. In addition, UK market research institutionsGfKpublish8The monthly consumer confidence index has improved compared to expectations-25This indicates an improvement in the market's future economic prospects. In response, the UK's private consumer confidence index has set a record since 4 The largest increase since the beginning of the month. However, it is worth noting that the deterioration of the UK Retail Sales and Purchasing Managers Index has previously exacerbated the economic recession in the UK, so GBP bears can ignore secondary data.

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 0.8580，0.8620； From the downward direction, the lower support0.8540。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.