Morgan Stanley and Federal Reserve officials both warn that the banking crisis is not over

Since last week when Moody's downgraded the US10Credit ratings of small and medium-sized banks, as well as this week's warning from Fitch that JPMorgan Chase may be downgraded(148.97, 0.34, 0.23%)And Bank of America(29.11, -0.17, -0.58%)After receiving ratings from larger institutions, Bank of Americastock market indexThen enter the mode of 'continuous decline'.

Industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock ExchangeKBWBank Index（BKX）This week has been down for five consecutive days, during which the cumulative decline exceeded5%, to7month10The lowest in the past six weeks.

　　KBWNASDAQ(13290.7764, -26.16, -0.20%)Regional Bank Index（KRX）On Friday, it barely stopped falling for four consecutive days, and the whole week has been nearly down6%, creating7month17The lowest in the past five weeks.

And in the7In late this month, the Bank of America stock index was originally close to a collective recovery3month8The total decline since the outbreak of the crisis in the Japanese banking industry.

In the past five days, the performance of the bank stock index and the S&P market has shown that deep blue and purple are respectivelyBKXandKRXIn the past five days, the performance of the bank stock index and the S&P market has shown that deep blue and purple are respectivelyBKXandKRX
Morgan Stanley(84.89, -0.90, -1.05%)Global Head of Quantitative ResearchVishwanath TirupatturRecently, a research report was released, expressing skepticism towards optimistic expectations that some analysts believe the 'banking industry turmoil' has passed:

Moody's downgrade10The ratings of banks in the US region remind us that potential adverse factors such as increased capital regulatory requirements, rising financing costs, and rising loan losses continue to challenge the business model of the US banking industry. ”

According to the research report, although the total debt of banks that have been downgraded so far is relatively small, about100Billion US dollars, but Moody's will6Larger banks are on the watch list for potential downgrades and will also receive additional11The outlook for banks has been downgraded from stable to negative:

This indicates that the debt scale of banks facing the prospect of downgrades is much higher - far exceeding1000Billion US dollars

With the negative outlook of rating agencies on the US banking industry, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation of the United StatesFDICAnd the Office of the Comptroller of the CurrencyOCCMultiple regulatory agencies have jointly proposed new regulations, which will target assets with a scale exceeding7000The strict standards imposed by a billion dollar super large bank impose assets that only need to exceed1000A medium-sized bank worth billions of dollars. The Federal Reserve has also proposed implementing capital surcharge capital rules for eight globally systemically important banks in the United States.

Da Mo cited the latest paper from the San Francisco Federal Reserve, stating that changes in the regulatory framework of the banking system will affect the real economy. Specifically, the higher capital requirements of the proposed new regulations will lead to a decrease in the ability of banks to use loans and financial market intermediaries on their balance sheets. That is to say, the new regulations directly target the future lending capacity and excessive tightening of credit standards of regional banks, which may lead to the next crisis