Ultima Markets：【行情分析】欧美利差尚存，欧元短期面临下...

Today's Focus on Varieties--EUR/USD。

Fundamentally,尽管美联储货币政策正进入末期，美元指数依旧持续走高。根据CFTC上周公布的数据显示，美元空头跌至八周最低水平。随着对冲基金继续削减其美元空头头寸，空头回补正推动美元指数反弹的趋势。

(USA10Yields of one-year treasury bond bondsvseuropean union10年期国债收益率）

在紧缩周期下，美欧两地区的长期债券利差驱动着套利资金购入美元抛售欧元，短期来看利差推动着欧元兑美元的调整趋势。

Technically,欧元兑美元日线周期在昨日完成了对上周五低点的突破。行情在接下来两天较大概率迎来下跌趋势。

（欧元兑美元日线周期图，来源Ultima Markets MT4）

行情跌破了均线组，昨日受阻于61.8%gold比例斐波那契回调位置。今日有一定概率回踩均线或者盘整价格，但若今日行情继续跌破昨日低点，则欧元兑美元将维持疲软。

（欧元兑美元日线周期图，来源Ultima Markets MT4）

日线结构来看，行情下方两个关键的支撑位置，1.0836为潜在的目标位，1.0639则是极其关键的多空分界点。若分界点被破坏，则行情将陷入大周期的震荡或者更深度的下跌。

(EUR/USD)4Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

4小时周期上则能看出多空陷入纠结，随机震荡指标走出金叉暗示多头，但是汇价却维持下行，这意味着下跌不够坚决，反弹力度依旧尚存。

(EUR/USD)1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

1小时结构行情仍然有回踩均线和阻力位的概率，若回踩后形成有效的随机震荡指标死叉，则日内欧元兑美元可以继续关注空头交易机会。

according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level1.09147，

1.09147Upward bullish, first goal1.09537Second objective1.09993

1.09147Under bearish, first target1.08680Second objective1.08284

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