CPT MarketsUS inflation and job market cooling strengthen tightening cycle end! Britain...

USD Index (DXY)：

The US dollar index surged to102.86Nearby, for the fourth consecutive week of rising. The slowdown in inflation, coupled with a cooling job market, has strengthened analysts' confidence that the Federal Reserve is expected to achieve a soft landing in the economy and avoid a recession.

So far, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in less than a year and a half525After a few basis points, the market increasingly believes that the end of the US tightening cycle is approaching, and the inflation data released by the US this week may add support to this expectation. Data display, United States7Monthly CoreCPIYear-on-year increase4.7%, which is the smallest increase in the past two years. But there have been some different voices within the Federal Reserve regarding the outlook for interest rates. San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said it is too early to suggest whether the Fed is doing enough on interest rates. New York Fed Chairman Williams believes that interest rates are now very close to their peak and is expected to begin cutting rates next year.

In terms of financial event data last Friday, the US Bureau of Labor announced7monthPPIThe monthly and monthly rates have all increased to0.8%and0.3%The core monthly rate has increased year-on-year by2.4%and0.3%This reflects an increase in the cost of production prices. In addition, the University of Michigan in the United States announced8The monthly consumer confidence index has risen to71.2The increase in consumer confidence means consumer growth and economic strength.

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 102.80，103.20； From the downward direction, the lower support102.40。

euro/pound (EURGBP)：

After a significant decline in the euro against the pound last Friday, the consolidation was0.8625Nearby, the market expects the European Central Bank to face internal disagreements within the council regarding whether to continue tightening measures after the summer. The economic outlook of the eurozone is not as good as that of the United States, making it difficult for the euro to regain its strength.

Economists at Commerzbank in Germany say that, contrary to the situation in the United States, the economy of the eurozone is weakening, which may put pressure on the euro. If inflation continues to move in the right direction, speculation of interest rate cuts in the eurozone may rise again, but market participants must remain patient once again. Next week'sGDPData may once again provide more momentum. As for the UK economy, sterling investors are still concerned about the short-term interest rate path of the Bank of England. Market pricing currently shows that the Bank of England9month21Continue to raise interest rates at the next meeting of the day25The probability of a basis point is approximately60%The likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged is approximately40%。

Last Friday's financial event data was released by the UK Bureau of Statistics6monthGDPMonthly rate higher than expected to0.5%Subsequently, the production law for the second quarter was also announcedGDPThe annual and quarterly rates have all increased to0.4%and0.2%This reflects the vigorous economic development of the country, the increase in national income, and the subsequent enhancement of consumption capacity. In addition, the UK Office for National Statistics has announced6The monthly rate of industrial output has increased to0.7%and1.8%The steady increase in the industrial output index indicates that the economy is in an upward period.

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 0.8620，0.8670； From the downward direction, the lower support0.8590。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.