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The economic growth target for the new year will be2023year3Announced during the "Two Sessions" of the month, although it may seem too early to make a definite prediction, we believe that this number will be5%Left and right. Due to2022The annual growth target is5.5%From the perspective of stabilizing market expectations, moderately reducing economic growth rate is a more reasonable policy choice. In order to promote economic growth, fiscal policies will also be more proactive, and we expect that2023The fiscal deficit rate will be raised toGDPof3%, higher than2022Of2.8%。


High quality development "will become a more important main line of economic development, with one of its core being to improve total factor productivity. Multiple studies have shown that since2008Since the global financial crisis in, China's total factor productivity has continued to decline. At the same time, investment has become the main engine driving economic growth. In order to achieve growth goals, local governments tend to increase investment in infrastructure, but due to the overall low efficiency of many investment projects, they are unable to maintain long-term stable cash flow. Therefore, although it can promote high economic growth in the short term, it brings long-term growth troubles.