Ultima Markets：【行情分析】套利交易存在空间 英镑兑澳元...

Today's Focus on Varieties--英镑兑澳元。

Fundamentally,财经数据上今日没有值得关注的数据公布，影响行情的因素更多是当前市场情绪。英澳之间的货币政策差异短期将主导两国之间的货币汇率。

（英央行政策利率蓝线vs澳联储政策利率黑线）

英国央行在上调基准利率25基点后，达到2008年以来最高的水平，升至5.25%。同时澳联储当前是4.1%，利差意味着套息交易存在空间。但由于澳元作为商品货币，天生容易受大宗商品价格的影响。此外市场对于澳联储未来峰值利率看涨，也将导致对于澳元的潜在看多。

Technically,英镑兑澳元日线周期上结构呈现潜在的沃尔夫浪结构。但是目前裸K结构没有显示明确的看跌结构。

（英镑兑澳元日线周期，来源Ultima Markets MT4）

日线裸K上看甚至有一定概率继续上冲——8month1日的行情在33日均线上止跌反弹，形成阳包阴，随后5日均线上汇价震荡持续了三天止跌出现三下影线。但需要警惕，随机震荡指标已经纠缠，上方阻力线也不远，多头入场后需要随时关注转向。

（英镑兑澳元1Hourly cycle, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

英镑兑澳元1小时上行情在震荡三天后形成了明确的矩形区间，昨日的突破暗示短期多头更占优。但是从ATR组合指标来看，行情突破是否有效存疑，技术角度来看目前英镑兑澳元看多不做多，更多关注空头信号的出现。

（英镑兑澳元1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level1.94141，

1.94141Upward bullish, first goal1.94943Second objective1.95451

1.94141Under bearish, first target1.93626Second objective1.92806

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