Guide Metallographer:8.4Today's gold trend analysis, US non farm employment data is soon to be released

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(8month3day)Volatile closing price1935.31dollar/Ounces, highest price1938.90dollar/Ounces, lowest price1929.32dollar/Ounces, closing price1932.92dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Thursday7monthISMNon manufacturingPMIRecorded52.7, lower than market expectations53, previous value is53.9； U.S.A6Monthly factory order rate recorded2.2%Higher than market expectations2.2%, previous value is0.3%； U.S.A7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value recorded52.3, lower than market expectations52.4, previous value is52.4.From the United States to7month29Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week22.7万人，符合市场预期，前值为22.110000 people.


Chief Business Economist, Global Market Intelligence, S&PChris Williamson表示，服务业仍然是美国经济增长的主要引擎，但有迹象表明，在逆风加剧的情况下，这台发动机正在熄火。7月份商业活动的增长速度是2月份以来最慢的，由于新业务增长大幅减少，扩张速度从5月份的近期峰值进一步下滑。国内客户的需求增长减弱，这通常与生活成本上升和加息有关。由于担心经济好转势头减弱，企业对前景的乐观程度大大降低，并因此减少了招聘人数。


　　分析称，受运输设备和其他商品需求强劲的提振，美国6月份制造商品新订单激增，表明尽管利率上升，但制造业仍保持部分动能。工厂订单继5月份增长0.4%之后，又增长了2.3%Higher than market expectations2.2%。尽管周二ISMmanufacturingPMIData display,7monthPMI连续第九个月萎缩(since2007-2009年经济大衰退以来持续时间最长的一次)，但一些领域仍保持强劲。运输设备订单在上个月增长4.2%After,6月份猛增12.0%；民用飞机订单猛增69.4%，机动车订单增长0.9%；计算机和电子产品订单增长了1.6%；电气设备、电器和元件订单增长了1.5%。工厂未完成订单增加了1.8%，这应该会支持生产。


　　评论称，由于劳动力市场状况依然紧张，上周初请失业金人数略有上升，而7月份裁员人数则降至11个月以来的最低水平。自2022year3月以来，劳动力市场基本经受住了美联储525个基点的加息。今年的初请人数处于19.4Wanzhi26.5万区间的下限，部分原因是难以根据季节性规律调整数据。汽车制造商通常会在7月份让工厂停工以重新装配新车型，但这些临时停工并不总是在同一时间发生，这可能会使政府用来从数据中剔除季节性波动的模型出现偏差。尽管如此，由于雇主们在疫情期间竭力寻找劳动力，因此囤积了大量工人，整体劳动力市场依然稳固。劳动力市场走强和通胀消退使人们对经济避免衰退更加乐观。


　　美国银行分析师在一份报告中表示，顽固通胀和市场对美联储宽松政策“过早”的定价对美元来说是个好兆头。他们表示：“我们仍认为，在2023年剩余时间里，对过早降息的定价(对美元而言)存在上行风险。”他们补充称，预计到2024年，美元将“走向长期均衡”。市场大多押注通胀放缓的速度足以让美联储从明年初开始降息，但美国银行表示，劳动力市场紧张和宽松的财政政策可能会使通胀保持粘性。


The world's largest goldETF--iShares Silver TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day3.18Tons, current position is906Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate maintained at5.25%-5.50%The constant probability is81.5%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.50%-5.75%The probability of the interval is18.5%； reach11The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is65.3%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is31.0%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is3.7%。


　　今日黄金数据:


　　09:30澳洲联储公布货币政策声明


　　14:45France6Monthly industrial output rate


　　17:00eurozone6Monthly retail sales rate


　　20:30Canada7Monthly Employment Number


　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly unemployment rate


　　20:30U.S.A7Non agricultural employment population after rose adjustment


　　22:00U.S.A7New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日下探收平，日线十字小阴星K线，惯性下探1929后并没有持续走低，今日周线收官，配合非农数据重磅登场，在数据公布前开始进入收缩震荡，日线虽是连阴，但昨日的空间有所缩量。黄金从日线上看，金价趋势已转空。短周期均线有序的排列在K线上方，支撑后市价格进一步走低。短线留意数据刺激后的短线走向，目前技术结构上还是向下趋势。不收复周初高点，短线依旧看回落。


　　4小时图破低后维持在破低点之下横向整理，由于数据临近，交投谨慎，空间进一步收缩压小。目前4小时结构暂时还处于下行台阶中运行，只是昨日空间缩量后，会延续至今日亚欧盘过渡，美盘再结合数据打破僵局。黄金从4小时线上看，各指标全部转为空头，但未进入超卖，1942前期支撑以转换为强压，价格在此下方趋势偏空。亚欧盘暂时留意1940-1942，此位不收复，短线还是先保持高空思路，在台阶震荡下跌通道中运行，下跌通道不收复，短线趋势不改。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1940-1942Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1920-1922Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　8.4Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1938-1940Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1930-1925Nearby, break down and take a look1920frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1920-1923Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1930-1935Nearby, break down and take a look1940frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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