ATFXcurrencies0802：惠誉下调美债评级，白宫债务无序扩张下，美...

Global Exchange Market Summary——
Yesterday, the US dollar index rose0.06%, closing at101.94Point,
Euro depreciation0.12%Closing price1.0984Point;
Depreciation of the Japanese yen0.75%Closing price143.33Point;
GBP depreciation0.46%Closing price1.2776Point;
Depreciation of Swiss franc0.39%Closing price0.8752Point;
综合来看，美元指数微幅升值，主流非美货币均不同程度贬值。

Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate——


Fitch downgrades the US long-term foreign currency debt rating toAA+Looking negative (later modified to stable). Doubts about the international credit of the US dollar have spread from peripheral countries such as Russia, Brazil, and Iran to the United States. The reason for Fitch's downgrade of the US Treasury credit rating is clearly due to the previous agreement between the White House and Congress to "suspend the debt ceiling", which led to disorderly expansion of federal government debt and a lack of constraints.

据美国财政部，截至7month27The US federal government's debt reached32.659Trillion dollars, an increase from last month3927.5亿美元。据第三方测算，美国联邦政府每季度需要支付超一万亿美元利息。巨额债务势必对美国宏观经济发展造成负面影响。

美元上涨的主因是美联储维持激进加息政策。市场预期曾认为7month27日是美联储年内最后一次加息，但是鲍威尔的讲话似乎暗示9月份还将加息一次。美联储官员对于美国劳动力市场的表现极为自信，鹰派言论此起彼伏。现实角度看，美国失业率较低、通胀率基本正常、GDP增速良好，宏观经济存复苏特征。然而，高利率逻辑上会侵害宏观经济，银行业、房地产市场、互联网产业、新能源汽车产业等等，都会因为融资成本过高而出现萎缩迹象。


现阶段，美元指数涨跌主要决定于每月公布的非农就业报告数据。只有在新增非农就业人口出现大幅不及预期的情况时，美指才会显著承压下行。周五即将公布的7月份非农就业报告显示，新增非农就业人口前值为20.910000 people, expected20万人，两者基本持平，预计公布值对于美指的影响不显著。

欧元区和英国仍在遭遇高通胀问题。欧元区CPIGrowth rate5.3%, UKCPGrowth rate7.9%，符合恶性通胀标准。欧央行和英央行年内仍存数次加息动作，欧元和英镑仍受货币政策层面提振。需要提醒的是，欧元汇率和英镑汇率主要由美指主导，美联储的货币政策动向重要性要远高于欧央行和英央行动向。

昨日公布的数据显示，欧元区6Monthly unemployment rate6.4%，与前值持平，低于预期值6.5%, at a natural unemployment rate4%以上。高通胀+高失业率+低增速（二季度增速年率仅0.6%），是欧元区宏观经济的典型特征。


Bank of Japan6月会议纪要显示：委员们一致认为，日本央行必须维持当前的货币宽松政策，以稳步可持续地实现物价目标。然而，日本的十年期国债收益率已经飙涨至0.631%，突破了此前0.5%上限限制，表明债券市场关于日本央行加息的预期的依旧非常强烈。

瑞士的宏观经济指标表现都非常健康，该国既不存在高通胀，也不存在高失业率，基准利率也处于合理区间。过去半年时间里，瑞郎一直处于升值态势，预计这种态势仍将持续。

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-08-02