Yu Yue on Jin:8.2Analysis of the rise and fall trend of gold prices and real-time strategies for unwinding operations...

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　　 Wednesday(8month2day)亚市早盘，美元指数全面上涨站稳102.04，gold未能守住周一的涨势，金价跌破1950美元形成触底。联储主席鲍威尔鹰派阵营复活，6月份美国职位空缺降至两年多以来的最低水平，裁员人数连续第三个月下降，凸显了劳动力市场的韧性。周三，“小非农”ADP就业报告即将发布，这可能是周五非农就业数据的预演，由于交易员对美元走强和美国国债收益率走强做出反应，周三黄金现货和futures均下跌超过1%。但这种解释缺乏完整的背景来解释黄金交易面临压力的多重原因。在周五非农就业报告发布之前，市场参与者的反应极为谨慎。目前的预测是，该报告将显示继6Month increase209000个之后，7New added in the month200000个就业岗位。



Analysis of Gold Market Trend:



　　黄金昨日高位转换回落，日线收成中阴K线，中阴吞阳，将前两个交易日的阳K线反弹空间尽数回吐，重新回到1940附近，并收在低位，单从日K线结构来看，阴吞阳的震荡转换回落形态。日线走跌。节奏上还是迂回反复，可能伴随一步一回头的洗盘手法。留意今日收线情况，决定周尾的强弱。


　　周二开盘黄金走出上涨，目前二次至1953不破，不过由于上涨的空间拉动技术面需求，黄金再次陷入震荡。其中，表现最为明显的是H4周期，当下，H4周期布林收口，均线虽然暂时开口向下发散，整体偏弱，但收口的需求明显走在1970-1940区间，因此周三继续看黄金的涨跌不连续，如果能继续慢涨走高，还可以上涨至1970高点，交易则可转向做低多。

　　小时线小周期中，早盘开盘直接上涨，多头在亚欧盘就表现出强势，但这波多头不追，要做多，小周期支撑在1945附近，可回落此点位操作，上方第一目标点位看1962，如果在ADP数据之前，站稳1962之上，可带保本损，继续看上涨至1970，如果不破1962，则以短线看震荡空间。至于美盘ADP数据的看法，目前市场前值是49.7w，市场预测值是18.9w，市场预测表现就业人数大幅减少，如果实际数据公布接近市场预测值，那么大幅利多黄金，上方1970压制点都可能破位，但如果实际值在预测值和前值之间，黄金则多空表现不一，会走上下来回起伏。


　　crude oil方面：原油昨日进一步延续涨势，短线处于慢性上涨当中，强整理代替回落，反复迂回创新高。回撤空间较小，日线收盘小阳，继续站稳在均线之上。短线单边慢涨延续。昨日在81.0一线做多上看82.0-82.50.基本上这种慢涨行情，只要给到进场点位。止盈的问题不大，日线没有出现探高回落，而是持续慢涨，短期就难言止涨，日内短线依旧是保持顺势看多。 4小时图依托中轨做支撑的慢节奏上涨，回踩中轨启稳后再贴着上轨慢慢上涨，原油今日压力82.60-83.30-83.50、支撑81.70-81.30。今日回踩81.70一线买入，止损81.20, Objective82.60-83.30。只是小时KLine and4hourK线未出现冲高回落，维持这种慢性回踩，涨势就难止，保持顺势看多创高。



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