Ultima Markets: [Market Review and Prospects] Busy Week Economic data or...

Last week's market review

Last Wednesday, the interest rate decisions of the major central banks were finally fully implemented, and in the short term, their respective exchange rates will digest corresponding monetary policies. Especially the yen, the Bank of Japan unintentionally adjustedYCCHowever, rather than directly adjusting the upper limit as expected by the market, it will be flexibly controlled10Yields of one-year treasury bond bonds, allowed10The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds is0.5Fluctuating by about one percentage point. This adjustment can be said to be the most dovish tightening policy, and it is up to the market to determine what changes will occur in the short term between the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank did not have any surprises in last week's interest rate resolution, both raising interest rates as expected25Base point. At the same time, for9Whether the monthly interest rate resolution will further increase interest rates still requires data to determine, and there are no more unexpected forward-looking guidance.

Market outlook

This week, the market is bound to experience significant fluctuations, with key data being released almost every day from Monday to Friday. The Federal Reserve of Australia and the Bank of England are about to announce their latest interest rate resolutions this week, with the former possibly suspending interest rate hikes and the latter possibly continuing to do so25Base point. In terms of economic data, countries'PMIThe final value of the data is about to be released, and if there are no surprises, the impact on the market will be lower than the initial value. In addition, this week's heavyweight US non farm employment data will also be released on Friday, and the market may experience significant fluctuations at that time.

European Central Bank7monthCPIdata

On Monday, the market will welcome important economic data - the European Central Bank's7monthCPIInflation rate. Last week, the European Central Bank raised interest rates as scheduled25After the basis point, inflation data will be the key to subsequent policy interest rate changes. If inflation stabilizes or even further declines, the probability of the European Central Bank raising interest rates within the year will plummet.

Whether the Federal Reserve of Australia will continue to raise interest rates is crucial

The Federal Reserve of Australia will announce its latest monetary policy on Tuesday. Australia Q2CPIThe data has finally fallen, reducing the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates significantly. If the policy interest rate is below8There has been no change in the month, and the AUD/USD may fall below the current volatile range and further decline. On the contrary, a higher than expected interest rate hike may drive the Australian dollar back towards appreciation against the US dollar.

Will the Bank of England raise interest rates again50basic point

The Bank of England will announce its latest monetary policy on Thursday. Over the past month, UK employment data has opened the door for the Bank of England to slow down, but economic outlook data such as manufacturing is not as good as6Strong announcement before the monthly meeting. The mixed economic data has led to current market expectations that the Bank of England will still raise interest rates, but there is a high probability25Base point.

US Nonfarm Employment Data

On Friday, the US Department of Labor released the latest employment data. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates as scheduled last week25If the employment data remains tight this Friday, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again within the year will slightly increase, and the US dollar may rebound upwards.

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.