Yu Yue on Jin:7.27黄金小幅上涨至周新高,晚间黄金初请数据预测

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Fundamental analysis:


Thursday(7month27day)，国际金价升至一周新高1982.20dollar/盎司，上方阻力看向2005美元。但美元指数收窄跌幅限制了金价涨势，交易员消化了美联储主席鲍威尔在普遍预期加息后发表的相当平衡的言论。美联储周三(7month26day)如期加息25个基点，并强调根据广泛的数据，9月份可能会再加息25个基点。然而，主席鲍威尔表示决策层不再预测美国经济衰退。鲍威尔表示，确实有机会让通胀回到目标，而不会造成大量失业，要实现这样的软着陆，还有很多工作要做。“工作人员现在预测，从今年晚些时候开始，经济增长将明显放缓，但考虑到最近经济的弹性，他们不再预测经济衰退。”当天晚些时候，预计美国将报告第二季度国内生产总值年化季率为1.8%，低于第一季度的2%；即将公布的美国上周初请失业金人数预计走高。投资者还将关注同时段的欧洲央行政策决定，预计欧银将第九次加息。


　　整体来看，虽然美国国会预算办公室大幅上调了2023年美国经济增长预测，欧洲央行将进一步加息并对9月份动作持开放态度，但市场预计美国二季度GDP增速将低于一季度，而欧元区近期数据料将降低欧洲央行特别鹰派的可能性，美联储加息后，市场强化了美联储接近加息周期尾声的预期，美元指数持续走弱，后市整体偏向gold多头，有望向2000Launch an impact at the checkpoint.


Gold Technology Analysis:


Yesterday's overall stabilization of gold technology1962上方呈现多头强势震荡回升，亚欧盘价格小幅回落下探并企稳1962关口迅速拉升至1972上方，午后冲高承压1974一线再度快速回落走跌，晚间美盘二次下探并企稳1963一线再度强势拉升破高并在凌晨利率决议后金价再度迎来强势拉升上涨，收盘于1970上方报收震荡破高中阳，整体价格企稳1962关口继续迎来多头强势反弹行情，不过今日上方将面临前期日线级别开跌口1980-85区域阻力，短期技术面来看金价依旧处于多空宽幅震荡区间，今日高位谨慎追多；


　　日线级别，金价昨日录得阳线收盘测试1980附近，此前回落幅度基本全部收回，短期走向仍维持多头趋势或继续震荡上涨为主，关注1987附近高点后市测试情况。1--4Hour level, short-term trend from1950上方录得支撑后迎来多头反击，昨日盘中突破1963美元后涨幅扩大至1977附近震荡收尾，截止当前欧盘，价格一度上探1980上方反复测试仍未展现明显止涨迹象，或有望回踩寻找支撑后再次上探。日内或关注短线下方1963上下测试机会低多为主，1987上破前或谨慎维持震荡操作。


　　操作思路：


　　多单：激进1967附近尝试，稳健1960上方轻仓多，止损6USD, target10--15dollar


Empty order:1984上下尝试，止损1990, Objective1975/1967nearby





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