CPT MarketsTight oil supply helps push oil prices to a three month high! Market waiting...

Brentcrude oil (Brent Oil)：

Brent crude oil rose to82.90附近，因有迹象表明供应趋紧，使得油价获得上行提振。

在利多数据方面，近月布伦特原油合约价格高于远月合约，这种被称为逆价差的价格结构表明交易商认为近期供应趋紧，六个月价差接近两个半月高点。国际货币基金组织IMF小幅上调了对今年全球经济增长的预期，原因是第一季度的经济活动具有韧性，但该组织警告持续存在的挑战正在抑制中期前景。尽管通胀正在回落及银行业的严重压力已消退，但全球经济面临的风险平衡仍偏向下行及信贷紧缩。 IMF表示目前预计今年全球实质国内生产总值GDP增长率上调了0.2Percentage points to3%，但对明年的展望仍维持在3%不变。此外，美国三大股市全数收涨，包含 标普指数收盘上涨0.29%The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher0.08%及纳斯达克综合指数收盘上涨0.61%。

In terms of bearish data, the American Petroleum InstituteAPI的数据指出，上周美国原油和馏分油库存意外增加，截至7month21日当周原油库存增加约131.9Increase of 10000 barrels and distillate oil inventory161.4Ten thousand barrels. In addition, according toCMEFederal Reserve observations indicate that the Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is99.6%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is78.7%。

总而言之，油价受供应趋紧及美股全数收涨而提振，不过上周原油库存意外增加及市场笃定美联储本周加息25个基点，限制了油价的涨势；市场静待美联储决议及EIAdata

Press from above(Upper resistance) 82.90，83.20； From the downward direction, the lower support82.40。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.