Yu Yue on Jin:7.24Will gold rebound correction still fall? Analysis of the Evening Gold Market...

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【行情分析】

    随着上周金价升至两个月高点，gold市场的情绪也继续维持整体积极，但在面临美联储议息会议将至的窗口期，整体仍显谨慎。上周美联储官员进入静默期，数据主导了金价的一周走势。虽然上周初公布的米国6月零售销售数据弱于预期，推动金价一举冲高至1987.39dollar/盎司的两个月高点。但因米国周度就业数据显示就业市场持续吃紧，加之美联储利率会议临近，黄金遭遇获利了结，再度回归1960dollar/盎司一线，因此，鲍威尔和他的同事们不太可能发出紧缩已经结束的信号，预计在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔可能会再次反对降息预期。如果鲍威尔在新闻发布会中重申再加息一次将符合他们的预测，黄金可能再次面临看跌压力



【走势分析】

     黄金走势结构上看，黄金上周四、五两日的阴线基本将周二的大阳线空间回吐，不仅仅对异动拉升进行了否定，同时也将行情重新带回到此前的震荡状态，结合本周美联储利率决定的影响可能会非常大，市场情绪也会异常的敏感，故本周黄金大概率还是会进行一定的震荡，以等待美联储利率决定来锁定最终方向。

   周初黄金上方关注5Daily line1970附近压力，下方先关注10Daily line1960争夺，按照上周四五收阴的状态，周初黄金如果出现惯性延伸下修也是允许的，技术上黄金也需要进行一定的再下蹲动作，把下方支撑踏稳，把空间腾出来，后期上涨趋势才能健康，且能够有技术上的看涨动能的配合，如果周初10Daily line1960失守，则下方可关注前期低点与20日线支撑带1945/40一带。只要记住老奉的话，中期看结构调整，长期看趋势走向，短期看形势控盘即可


【操作分析】

    1小时图看，黄金走势经过上周冲击1985一线阻力回落的形态后，本周初于1961一线平开，正式宣告第一波试探1985一线压力完结，接下来根据预测还会有一到两次试探这一阻力位置的走势出来，结合这次回调的低点看来，接下来的黄金走势，偏向于区间震荡，所以操作方面建议高抛低吸。

    4小时图看，黄金上涨通道有被打破的迹象，通道下线有被破位，不过需要注意的是最近低点1956一线相比较前期低点1946一线，属于高位，所以大趋势上看，还是低点越来越高的上涨趋势，本次的回调，属于遇阻1985一线的技术回调，并不是反转看跌的信号，那么我们近期按照回调走势看行情即可，操作方面禄建议高抛低吸即可。日线图看，黄金运行5/10均线之间，上有压力，下有阻力的震荡走势看的很明显，结合k线连收三阴的偏弱势局面，我们可以看到如若跌破1956一线，那么进一步见1940一线的概率就会偏大，下方56一线支撑不破，便继续看区间震荡


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