CPT Markets:Tradeoff between tightening US crude oil supply and potential US interest rate hikes in the oil market...

Brentcrude oil (Brent Oil)：

Brent crude oil fell to76.29附近，市场在美国原油供应趋紧与美国加息可能性提高间权衡，加息可能会削弱能源需求，美国劳动力市场继续彰显韧性。

在利空数据方面，根据CMEFederal Reserve observations indicate that the Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate maintained at5.00%-5.25%The constant probability is8.2%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is91.8%； reach9The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is5.8%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is66.7%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is27.5%。 OPEC+成员阿曼表示，由于全球经济放缓，今年油价下跌了10%以上，但阿曼对此并不担心。阿曼交通、通信和信息技术部长Al Mawali表示，如果平均油价低于80dollar/桶，对阿曼来说不是问题。此外，美国三大股市全数收窄，包含标普指数收盘下跌0.78%The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower1.07%And the Nasdaq Index closed lower0.82%。

而在利多数据方面，周四美国能源信息署EIA表示，受强劲的炼油需求推动，上周美国原油库存下降幅度超过预期，汽油库存在驾车出行量增加后大降。上周原油库存下降150.8万桶、汽油库存降至255万桶及精炼油库存下跌至104.5万桶。接近石油输出国组织OPEC的消息人士表示，OPEC在本月晚些时候首次公布其对明年石油需求增长的展望时，可能保持乐观的看法，预计需求将较今年有所放缓，但增幅仍料高于平均水平。

总而言之，油价受美联储7月加息概率升高及美股全数收挫而打压，不过上周美国原油和汽油库存降幅均大于预期，限制了油价的跌势；日内重点将关注非农就业报告。

Press from above(Upper resistance) 76.20，76.70； From the downward direction, the lower support75.80。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.