CPT MarketsPotential economic recession factors have not yet disappeared, supporting gold prices! Follow this week...

gold/dollar (XAUUSD)：

After a significant increase in the closing price of gold against the US dollar last Friday, it closed in consolidation1917.40Nearby, the potential economic recession factors have not yet disappeared, supporting gold prices.

In terms of positive factors

1. The potential economic recession factors have not disappeared: although the possibility of a recession this year is currently considered low, concerns about the economy have not disappeared. Earlier this month, the New York Federal Reserve predicted that the future12The likelihood of a recession occurring in the next month is71%. The Federal Reserve hopes to moderately increase the unemployment rate to4.5%To achieve inflation control goals. Although the unemployment rate is still running at4%Below, but if the proportion of consumption to GDPGDPabout70%At all costs, cracking down on service consumption in our economy may mean a significant increase in unemployment, leading to an unnecessary recession. Economists at ANZ believe that strong economic data and stubborn inflation have left room for the Federal Reserve to further tighten its currency, which is a short-term disadvantage for gold prices. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve will temporarily suspend interest rate hikes at some point this year, and the gold market will still receive structural support.

2. Analysts predict that the monetary tightening cycle is nearing its end: Senior Economist at ABN Amro BankGeorgette BoelePoint out that near40The most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in years is nearing its end, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next year175A basis point, which may provide important bullish momentum to drive gold prices to historical highs. The market may be waiting for lower levels of buying positions, so the market may be more patient. Overall, the position of gold is not extreme.

In terms of bearish factors

1. Fed Chairman Powell's Hawkish Talk: Fed Chairman Powell At the forum, it was stated that most Fed decision-makers still believe that interest rates will be raised twice this year, and the possibility of taking action at the next meeting has not been ruled out. Afterwards, at a financial stability meeting in Madrid, Powell reiterated his statement that he would raise interest rates at least twice before the end of the year, further strengthening market support for the Federal Reserve's6Expectations for a resumption of interest rate hikes after the monthly meeting was held still.

2. Last week's strong economic data in the United States: A series of data released last week in the United States showed strong performance, including the advisory board's announcement of the United States6Monthly Consumer Confidence Index Set a Record17A new high in the past month;5Monthly growth in non defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft0.7%, far better than market expectations of flat;5Monthly new home sales hit a record2022year2New high since the beginning of the month;6month25Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week20The maximum decrease in months. In addition, the US Department of Commerce will release the first quarterGDPThe month on month growth rate has been revised to2%, previous value is1.3%。

Press from above(Upper resistance) 1917.40，1919.20； From the downward direction, the lower support1915.90。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.