CPT Markets:The US and Iran restart negotiations and encounter obstacles again to support oil prices! Follow China within the day...

Brentcrude oil (Brent Oil)：

Brent crude oil rose to74.32附近，因美伊重启谈判再遇一大障碍，使得油价短线上行提振。

在利多数据方面，美国上周初请失业金人数创20个月以来最大降幅，这是经济具有韧性的最新迹象，可能会推动美联储7月加息。此外，美国股市普遍收涨，包含标普指数收盘上涨0.44%And the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher0.80%。在主要银行通过美联储年度压力测试后，银行股反弹，同时强劲的经济数据激起了市场对美联储进一步加息的预期。另外，周四美国伊朗问题特使 罗布·马利 表示，由于他的安全许可正在接受美国当局审查，他正处于休假状态，这可能阻碍美伊重启谈判的步伐。

而在利空数据方面，美联储主席 Powell 暗示，联储决策者很可能在本月稍早暂停行动后恢复加息，而最新公布的一系列强于预期的美国经济数据，强调了可能需要进一步收紧货币政策的理由。近期确实在一次会议上没有采取行动，预计将继续以适当幅度提高利率。据CMEFederal Reserve observations indicate that the Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate maintained at5.00%-5.25%The constant probability is12.0%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is88.0%； reach9The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is8.4%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is65.2%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is26.4%。

总而言之，油价受初请失业金人数创20个月最大降幅，提振下周非农就业数据好于预期信心，加之美伊谈判再遇障碍而提振，不过美联储鹰派言论，限制了油价的涨势；日内重点将关注中国6Monthly official manufacturingPMIAnd the United States5monthPCEPrice index.

Press from above(Upper resistance) 74.30，74.80； From the downward direction, the lower support73.90。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.