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Guide Metallographer:6.29Today's gold trend analysis shows that the rebound in gold prices is unable to maintain volatility

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Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(6month28day)Volatile closing price1913.30dollar/Ounces, highest price1917.02dollar/Ounces, lowest price1902.66dollar/Ounces, closing price1910.67dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


  美联储主席鲍威尔表示,不关注市场的预期是什么,重申今年有必要再加息两次,相信还会有更多的加息措施,不排除在连续的会议上采取行动的可能性。但加息的速度尚未确定,取决于数据,可能衰退但并非是可能性最大的情况。


  欧洲央行行长拉加德表示,在通胀方面仍有工作要做。如果基准情景保持不变,很可能在7月份加息。没有看到足够的实质性证据表明基础通胀正在下降,目前不考虑暂停加息。另外,据悉部分欧洲央行官员正在考虑加快缩债步伐。


  美联储表示,参加其年度压力测试的所有23家美国银行都经受住了严重经济衰退的考验。尽管这些银行预计亏损5410亿美元,但能够维持最低资本水平,同时在假设的经济衰退中能继续提供信贷。


  报道显示,此次测试对象包括摩根大通和富国在内的巨头、在美国有大型业务的国际银行以及PNCandTruist在内最大的地区性银行,但较小的银行完全避开了测试,因此通过压力测试并不像前几年那样代表“万无一失”。预计未来几个月对地区性银行的监管将加强,同时国际标准可能会收紧,提高对美国大型银行的资本要求。美联储负责监管的副主席巴尔表示:“今天的结果证实,银行体系仍然强劲而有弹性。但测试只是衡量这种强度的一种方式。应继续努力确保银行能够抵御一系列经济情景、市场冲击和其他压力。”


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day1.15Tons, current position is926.81Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate maintained at5.00%-5.25%The constant probability is18.2%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is81.8%; reach9The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is11.7%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is58.6%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is26.5%。


Today's Gold Data:


  14:30美联储主席鲍威尔参加会议


  16:30britain5Monthly central bank mortgage loan permit


  17:00eurozone6Monthly Industrial and Economic Prosperity Index


  17:00eurozone6Final value of monthly consumer confidence index


  20:00Germany6monthCPIInitial monthly rate


  20:30From the United States to6month24Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


  20:30US Q1 ActualGDPYearly quarterly rate final value


  20:30美国第一季度实际个人消费支出季率终值


  20:30US Q1 CorePCEThe final value of the annualized quarterly rate of the price index


  22:00U.S.A5Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing


Technical analysis of gold:


  从日线结构上来看,黄金基本已经跌至预期的中期关键支撑位1900附近,连续的下跌调整也释放了技术上的回修需求,同时也是对鲍威尔偏鹰利空黄金的释放,所以隔夜讲话后行情并未大幅下跌,反倒出现一定的止跌回弹。不过鲍威尔的讲话奠定了未来中长期市场的大方向,即年内再加息两次的预期将会给黄金带来持续的打压,所以目前黄金能够有回弹也仅仅只是技术上的暂缓下跌,并不足以改变中长期趋势。


  结合日线以及小时图走势,日内黄金上方关注1915附近短压测试,如果今日鲍威尔讲话不是太强烈的鹰派,那么黄金短暂回弹会有延续可能,上方可继续关注1920附近压力,甚至可关注1927附近压力测试,总之目前黄金回弹只是技术上的止跌级别,仅凭技术力量很难争取到上方太多的空间,随时可能再度面临压力。且在美联储下半年再加息两次的预期前提下,黄金大方向还是偏空的,这与日线级别日均线整体向下空头发散状态也是对应的,所以黄金主思路还是看空,回弹也仅仅只能做超短线参与。


  操作上,保守者继续观望一下,因为今日鲍威尔讲话在下午,时间点比较特殊,待其讲话后再进行相关策略调整。日内激进则先围绕小区间进行超短线低多高空,但也务必根据鲍威尔讲话再做相关策略调整。综合来看,今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主,回调做多为辅,上方短期重点关注1915-1917Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1900-1902Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


  6.29Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1915-1917Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1910-1905Nearby, break down and take a look1900frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1900-1902Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1910-1915Nearby, break down and take a look1920一线;(建议仅供参考,投资有风险,入市需谨慎!


Daily gold, silvercrude oilInvestment Strategy 【 Guide 】 Free guidance from a financial advisorwx:zns83721 QQ:3096653915】Daily crude oil operation suggestions, gold and silver markets, daily analysis of gold, and latest operational strategies. Market hotspots

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