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Guide Metallographer:6.28今日黄金走势分析,美经济数据表现强劲

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Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(6month27day)Volatile closing price1925.53dollar/Ounces, highest price1930.46dollar/Ounces, lowest price1911.34dollar/Ounces, closing price1913.33dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday5Monthly rate of durable goods orders recorded1.7%Higher than market expectations-1.00%, previous value is1.10%。


Commentary states that the United States5月核心资本耐用品订单意外上升(预期为不变),但上月数据被下修,显示企业对新资本投资仍持谨慎态度,因借贷成本上升且经济前景不明朗。自2022year3月以来,美联储已将政策利率上调了500个基点。美联储已经暗示,今年还会有两次加息来冷却通胀。大多数经济学家预计今年年底会出现衰退。


United States6Consumer confidence index of the monthly consultation chamber recorded109.7Higher than market expectations104, previous value is102.3; U.S.A5Annualized total monthly sales of new homes76.3Higher than market expectations67.5, previous value is68.3; U.S.A6Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Record-7Higher than market expectations-12, previous value is-15.


  评论称,由于对商业和就业状况的乐观看法,6月份对当前形势的评估有所上升。事实上,认为就业机会“充足”与“不那么充足”的消费者之间的差距扩大了,表明消费者对就业市场的乐观情绪继续表现出色。同样,对未来六个月的预期也大幅改善,反映出对未来商业环境和就业机会的信心增强。虽然6月份的收入预期略有下降,但本月发布的数据显示,消费者家庭财务状况的前景明显好转:约30%的人预计未来六个月家庭财务状况会“好转”,而不到14%的人预计会“更糟”。这可能反映出消费者相信劳动力市场状况将保持良好,未来通胀将进一步下降。


  美国白宫国家经济委员会主任布雷纳德表示,尽管有反复的经济衰退预测,但实际数据显示,经济显示出很大的韧性。我们持续看到强劲的劳动力市场和低失业率,劳动力市场的强大是由于我们看到的劳动参与度大幅提高,所以有理由认为我们将继续看到经济韧性。


  摩根士丹利分析称,,7月加息的门槛已比最初预期的要低得多,预计美国经济将以更快的速度进入停滞状态,8Month or9月可能首次出现非农负增长。预测今年月度非农新增就业人数将大幅放缓,在2023年第四季度将降至9万人以下,并在2024year1月触底,达到4万人,然后在2024年逐渐改善到7.2ten thousand people/月。在就业增长如此缓慢的情况下,这些数据中很可能至少有一个月会出现负数,尤其是考虑到,在新冠疫情爆发前,非农就业总增长只有一次标准偏差约为20万。负非农的出现可能会让金融市场的避险情绪飙升,尤其是在投资者仍在关注经济衰退的情况下。更糟糕的是,美联储通常不太可能迅速做出反应,“联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)有时似乎对即将到来的数据充耳不闻”。非农就业负增长可能是一次性的,可能需要更多的迹象来证明这点,而那需要时间。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate maintained at5.00%-5.25%The constant probability is23.1%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is76.9%; reach9The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is18.7%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is66.7%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is14.6%。


Today's Gold Data:


  14:00Germany7monthGfkConsumer confidence index


  14:00britain6monthNationwideMonthly rate of housing price index


  16:00Switzerland6monthZEWInvestor confidence index


  20:30美、英、日、欧央行行长参加讨论


  21:30美联储主席鲍威尔参加小组讨论


Technical analysis of gold:


  黄金昨日收出中阴线,整体呈震荡回落走势。其中,昨日黄金最高触及1930.4, lowest touch1911.3,开线1925.5,收线1913.3位置,最大运行区间19.1美元,最终跌幅12.2美元。日线走势上,黄金昨日呈震荡回落走势,上方刚好顶线1930位置压制,低位踩到1911一带,也算是将近期的震荡结构区间直接走满了,接下来不论是修整还是整理,行情注定了会产生结构变盘点,即要么刺穿下行,要么震荡反转,均值得密切关注。今日以来,行情走试探性双向整理走势,至此高低位均有试探,不过都没能带动短期结构破位,交投上需认真斟酌。


  波段走势上,黄金昨日呈冲高回落走势,结构内部存在两次高位滞涨反转走势。其一是亚盘时段,行情自短期区间震荡低位1922一带放量上冲1930位置,午间到欧盘时段均未能突破1930一带压制,迎来了第一波回吐行情;其二是美盘开盘时段,行情直接走出了冲高回落模式,金价自1919一带反转冲击1930一带之后,直接走出了三连阴杀跌模式,金价直接冲击近期结构低位1911一带,将上周五以来的结构涨幅尽数回吐,至此整体结构再回弱势震荡预期之中。今日以来,行情换线之后走双向整理模式,早间至此的涨幅已然回吐完毕,接下来重点看1910一带的得失变化。行情弱势,但是仍旧不建议在1910这一带直接追空,毕竟作为结构低位,其支撑效果已经受到了多次考验,还是稳健些为好。综合来看,今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主,回调做多为辅,上方短期重点关注1922-1925Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1900-1905Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


  6.28Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1920-1923Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1915-1910Nearby, break down and take a look1900frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1900-1905Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1918-1922Nearby, break down and take a look1925frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)

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