CPT MarketsA six month reverse price difference in crude oil suggests oversupply and pressure on oil prices...

Brentcrude oil (Brent Oil)：

Brent crude oil fell to72.77附近，因两个月布伦特原油处于正价差，暗示担心供应过剩，导致油价下行承压。

在利空数据方面，布伦特原油的六个月逆价差 ，即近月合约价格高于远月合约，触及12月以来最低，基本接近正值，表明对供应短缺的担忧在消退。两个月价差处于轻微正价差，即远月合约价格高于近月合约，表明交易商正在消化市场供应略微过剩。此外，据CMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate maintained at5.00%-5.25%The constant probability is23.1%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is76.9%； reach9The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is18.7%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is66.7%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is14.6%。

In terms of Lido data, the American Petroleum InstituteAPI数据显示上周美国原油和汽油库存下降，在截至6month23日的一周内，原油库存下降了240.8The inventory of ten thousand barrels and gasoline has decreased285万桶。此外，美国三大股市全数收涨，包含标普指数收盘上涨1.13%The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher0.63%And the Nasdaq Index closed higher1.65%。

总而言之，油价受担心供应过剩加息忧虑拖累而震荡疲软，不过上周美国原油库存下降及美股全数反弹走升，限制了油价的跌势；日内重点将关注美联储鲍威尔讲话及EIAdata

Press from above(Upper resistance) 72.70，73.00； From the downward direction, the lower support72.30。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.