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Guide Metallographer:6.27今日黄金走势分析,金价反弹无果加剧震荡

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Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(6month26day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1925.17dollar/Ounces, highest price1933.15dollar/Ounces, lowest price1921.35dollar/Ounces, closing price1925.52dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Monday6月达拉斯商业联储活动指数录得-23.2, lower than market expectations-20, previous value is-29.1.


  评论称,市场对整体商业状况的看法在6月份继续恶化,达拉斯联储商业活动指数仍为负值,但有所上升,为-23.2。劳动力市场指标显示,就业增长疲软,工作时间减少。美国6月达拉斯联储制造业就业指数回落至2.2Below7.8的平均水平。价格压力减弱,而工资压力仍然很高。美国6月达拉斯联储制造业原材料支付价格指数下降12Point, to1.4,表明投入成本与5月份相比变化不大。6月份对未来制造业活动的预期好坏参半。未来生产指数上升12Point, to24.2。未来一般商业活动指数仍为负值,但从-12.7Ascend to-4.5。其他大多数衡量未来制造业活动的指标都是积极的,并且在本月有所上升。


Geopolitical situation:


  俄罗斯总统普京表示,叛乱组织者意图分裂俄罗斯。感谢瓦格纳指挥官和士兵们避免了流血冲突。情况表明任何的要挟和叛乱都注定要失败。我向那些想去白俄罗斯的瓦格纳成员保证,我会信守我的承诺。瓦格纳部队可以加入俄罗斯军队或前往白俄罗斯。


  高盛分析,俄罗斯近期事态发展对石油市场的影响可能有限。目前石油流动没有受到干扰。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day1.44Tons, current position is925.66Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate maintained at5.00%-5.25%The constant probability is24.4%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is75.6%; reach9The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is20.9%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is68.5%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is10.6%。


Today's Gold Data:


  14:00britain6monthNationwideMonthly rate of housing price index


  16:00European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


  20:30Canada5monthCPIMonthly rate


  20:30U.S.A5Monthly rate of durable goods orders


  21:00U.S.A4monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index


  21:00U.S.A4monthS&P/CS20Annual rate of housing price index in major cities


  22:00U.S.A5Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


  22:00U.S.A6Monthly Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index


  22:00U.S.A6Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index


Technical analysis of gold:


  黄金昨日探高回落,日线收盘小阴十字K线,上探1933不破,回落重新收在1920附近。日线探高收低,短线依旧偏弱,整体仍处于下行台阶中运行,只是短线迂回反复,美元的阴晴不定。限制了黄金短期的空间。日线结构仍处于均线指标之下受压走弱,昨日在1938之下承压,今日仍维持在此位之下看空,上破则走强,重点关注此位得失!


  周一讲过,周内黄金1938得失是关键,在这里再次强调一下,由于周内的震荡环境明显,黄金难有大动作,站稳在1938之上,黄金慢涨可以看到1970,如果一直在1938之下运行,下方可见1910,因此,大区间大概率是在1970/1910,区别就在于震荡强势或者震荡弱势。由于周一没有太大的波动,一直保持在1938之下,所以,周二黄金还是一个震荡弱势状态。


  从技术面来看,首先周一是震荡行情,日线并没有收阳,也没有破位单边均线压制,所以,不存在弱转强的变化,因此,黄金依旧有下行破位1910的风险,第二,目前k线收在H4布林中轨附近,整体短线还有反弹空间,可看H4周期的布林上轨1938的可能,因此,周二交易还是要先看低多反弹力度,然后再看美盘1938点位得失,第三,小时线周期区间明显,布林收口,均线粘合,没有任何发散迹象,经过周一的多次试探1920不下,那么,欧盘可以直接在1922附近做多,继续看对周一高点1933的冲击,在周二美盘之前,走高破位1933不算破,站稳1938才能看强,再继续上看1950,1970,因此,周二亚欧盘先看1920/1933的震荡,上方1938在美盘不破的话,继续看周一的下跌节奏,如果站稳1938,日线再次收阳,确定上涨形态,则可见1950高点。综合来看,今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空多为主,回调做多为辅,上方短期重点关注1938-1940Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1920-1922Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


  6.27Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1933-1938Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1930-1925Nearby, break down and take a look1920frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1920-1922Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1930-1935Nearby, break down and take a look1940frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)

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