Guide to gold analyst: Today's gold trend analysis, gold price slightly rises and maintains volatility...

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(6month23day)Charge up, fall back, slightly close up, opening price1913.23dollar/Ounces, highest price1937.11dollar/Ounces, lowest price1909.98dollar/Ounces, closing price1920.89dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Friday6monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIInitial value recorded46.3, lower than market expectations48.5, previous value is48.4； U.S.A6monthMarkitService industryPMIThe initial value is54.1.


Chief Business Economist, Global Market Intelligence, S&PChris WilliamsonIt is said that the situation in the service industry is better than that in the manufacturing industry, and demand is showing elasticity. Suspending interest rate hikes seems to help boost companies' optimism for the coming year. The question remains, how resilient is the growth of the service industry in the face of the lagging impact of the manufacturing downturn and previous interest rate hikes. The tight labor market remains a concern, and wage pressures remain the main driving factor for rising costs in the service industry. However, it is encouraging that the overall sales price inflation rate of goods and services has decreased2020The lowest level since the end of the year indicates that the Federal Reserve is winning the battle against inflation.6The overall expansion rate of business activities in the United States remained strong in the month. However, growth still relies on service sector spending, and the manufacturing industry has started to decline again after three months of growth. Although the improvement in supply conditions helped boost manufacturing production in the first few months, the increasingly severe decline in new orders means that factories are facing shortages.


Moody's believes that compared to last time, the rating agency's benchmark assumption for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has slightly changed. As previously anticipated, it is expected that the Federal Reserve5The interest rate hike in the month is the last of the current tightening cycle, and the policy interest rate will remain at5%to5.25%The final interval until2023At the end of the year. However, it is now expected that the Federal Open Market Committee will not2024year1Starting from the beginning of the month, interest rates will be lowered, but the first rate cut will be postponed until3Month, as inflation remains more persistent than previously expected. Although the Federal Open Market Committee will take further policy actions based on the sustained impact of monetary tightening on the economy and financial situation, it is expected that over time, the policy stance will have sufficient restrictive measures to bring inflation down to the target level. reach2025At the end of the year, monetary policy will remain restrictive. The federal funds rate will be set at2026Returning to neutral interest rates at the beginning of the year.


Geopolitical situation:


On Saturday afternoon, Putin delivered a televised speech, stating that during special military operations, any grievances should be set aside, as the fate of the Russian nation is facing a decision; Wagner warriors are all heroes who participated in special military operations, but those who organized armed rebellions betrayed their honor. He stated that this is an attempt to subvert Russia from within and is a "treasonous act". According to foreign media reports, Putin also stated, "Those who intentionally take the path of treason and prepare for armed rebellion while preparing for terrorist attacks will be punished."(The full name of Wagner Group is Wagner Private Military Services Company, which is a mercenary group. Wagner has5Ten thousand combatants are a key part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.6month25In the early hours of the day, Prigoren agreed to stop the activities of Wagner soldiers within Russian territory, and the troops originally heading towards Moscow were turning around and returning.)


According to The Guardian, former Chief of Staff of the British Army, Dennett, has warned that if Wagner Group mercenaries follow their leader Prigoren into Belarus, they may launch a new round of attacks on Kiev from Belarus.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate maintained at5.00%-5.25%The constant probability is25.6%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is74.4%； reach9The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is22.0%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is67.6%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is10.4%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　16:00Germany6monthIFOBusiness Prosperity Index


　　18:00britain6monthCBIRetail sales difference


　　22:30U.S.A6Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for the Month


Technical analysis of gold:


Last Friday, the overall technical level of gold slightly declined, breaking through the bottom and entering a deep periodVRebounding and breaking through the closing high, prices in the Asian and European markets are suppressed1916The lower part fluctuates and falls, further falling and piercing in the afternoon1910The checkpoint stabilized and rebounded, and the US gold price rebounded strongly in the evening, breaking through and standing up1920The checkpoint continued to rebound and rise, ultimately leading to22Accelerate after point to charge high and pierce through1937Under pressure at the checkpoint, the market fell back and closed in a volatile mannerkLine closing bottoms out and rebounds with a bullish trend, stabilizing overall prices1910The checkpoint is experiencing a bottoming out, recovery, and repair, ending the near future4A decline in several trading days, but from the closing pattern, the overall gold price has not yet broken through and has stood at the opening of the previous daily line1940Above suppression, the medium to long term trend line remains bearish and diverges downwards.


In the long cycle, gold has finally fallen off the weekly track and is about to reach a support intensive area. In addition, there may be testing of the anti pressure line on the weekly chart, so it is highly likely that gold will have a repetitive market trend in the near future. On the short line,1919、1910The support in the waiting position will be tested one by one,4The hour line basically forms a double bottom divergence, and bulls are likely to be short-lived.4Under pressure after the short-term downward trend line of hours4Long term downward trend line within hours, with prices retracing the short-term trend line4The support level formed after the short-term downward trend line breaks through. Follow Today4Can the support level formed by the long-term downward trend line break through.


From4Looking at the hourly chart, the target position below is still focused on bottoming out, with a clear overall pattern and trend of weak bears. Pay attention to the position below1910First line support, above1935-1930Frontline suppression, a divide between long and short1940Before breaking through the daily level and stabilizing at this position, any rebound is a short selling opportunity, and we will continue to participate in the main tone of the trend. Overall, next Monday's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that rebound short selling should be the main focus, and pullback long selling should be supplemented. The short-term focus above is on the above1928-1933Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1908-1910First line support, friends must keep up with the pace. want


　　6.26Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1928-1933Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1920-1915Nearby, break down and take a look1910frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1910-1912Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1920-1925Nearby, break down and take a look1928frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)