CPT MarketsDifferences in tone of speech and market expectations among Federal Reserve officials have caused gold prices to fluctuate...

gold/dollar (XAUUSD)：

After a significant increase in the closing price of gold against the US dollar last Friday, it closed in consolidation1935.50Nearby, there is a divergence between market expectations and the information conveyed by the Federal Reserve, which may cause the market to swing back and forth.

In terms of positive factors

1. There are signs of weakness in the US job market: the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased slightly, while the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased slightly. Overall, the trend of the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is still gradually increasing, and from the perspective of cyclical changes at the lowest point, it will definitely paint a disturbing picture. However, this cycle is very unique in many aspects, and analysis based on previous cycles may not be entirely accurate. In fact, based on the changes in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits so far, the unemployment rate should have been much higher.

2. There is a disagreement between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's message: after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the market believes that the Federal Reserve7The possibility of a monthly interest rate hike has exceeded70%But the market believes that this will be the last rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and it will start next year1Interest rates will be lowered starting from the beginning of the month. There is a disagreement between market expectations and the message conveyed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision last week. The Federal Reserve hinted on the map that there are still two opportunities for interest rate hikes this year, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at a press conference after the meeting that there will be no interest rate cuts in the coming years, which may cause the market to swing back and forth.

In terms of bearish factors

1. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve delivers a hawkish speech: The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Powell At a hearing held by the Senate Banking Committee, he stated that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting last week decided to stay put in order to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, but he stated that it would be appropriate to raise interest rates again this year, perhaps twice. At the same time, Powell stated that he expects no interest rate cuts in the short term and can only take action if he is confident that inflation is declining.

2. Central banks around the world release hawkish interest rate hikes: The Bank of England7:2Vote to raise interest rates50Bps to5%This is the second consecutive decision by the Bank of England13The interest rate has been raised several times, and the increase exceeds market expectations. The UK interest rate level has risen to2008year4The highest level since the beginning of the month. In addition, the Swiss Central Bank raised interest rates25Bps to1.75%But previously, the market believed that the Swiss Central Bank had raised interest rates50The possibility of a basis point, therefore former Swiss Central Bank President Jordan reiterated his readiness to raise interest rates.

Press from above(Upper resistance) 1935.50，1937.20； From the downward direction, the lower support1933.70。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.