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Last week's market review

上周财经事件虽然不多，但是却都引起了不小的市场波动，无论是crude oil、贵金属还是foreign exchange均走出一波趋势行情。

英国央行与瑞士央行最终均选择加息以低于不断高涨的物价水平。美联储主席鲍威尔在两院讲话中强调了美联储尚未结束抗通胀斗争的鹰派立场，通胀率回落至2%目标水平还有“很长的路要走”，美联储可能在未来几个月内加息。

受此影响，现货gold持续下挫，一度失守1920dollar/ounce.

Market outlook

6月的最后一周，按照惯例主要经济体将公布最新的通胀数据，尤其是各国央行在货币政策开始出现分歧之际，通胀数据决定了未来继续加息与否的关键。

本周欧洲央行举行中央银行论坛，英国央行行长贝利、欧洲央行行长拉加德、美联储主席鲍威尔和日本央行行长植田和男均会出席，关注在小组讨论阶段是否将释放最新货币政策信号。

Canada5monthCPIMonthly rate

6月加拿大央行会议纪要显示，管委会一致认为经济仍明显处于过度需求状态，供需的再平衡可能需要比之前预期的时间更长。在加拿大5月零售额增长了0.5%的背景下，5monthCPI报告将更好地说明消费者需求究竟如何，这一定程度上影响7月加拿大央行货币政策走向。

Australia5End of Month Seasonal AdjustmentCPIthe annual rate

目前市场对于今年澳联储的加息2次还是3次仍然存在分歧，而7Monthly interest rate hike25基点的概率为50%。本周三澳大利亚的5End of Month Seasonal AdjustmentCPI年率若远超预期的6.8%。则澳元或将再度恢复6月以来的升值趋势。

U.S.A5Monthly CorePCEdata

由于第二季度经济GDPand6Monthly CorePCEAll of them are in the7月决议之后发布，因此周五公布的5Monthly CorePCE数据是影响7月美联储利率决议的重要因素之一。鲍威尔此前强调，“通胀已经有所缓和但仍处于高位，corePCE方面没有看到太多进展，希望看到这一数据明显下降。”若5月核心通胀仍处高位，则7月加息概率将进一步上升。

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