ATFXGlobal Exchange Market0620：隔夜美指微幅波动，澳洲联储会议纪要致...

Yesterday, the US dollar index rose0.18%, closing at102.48Point,
Euro depreciation0.19%Closing price1.0921Point;
Depreciation of the Japanese yen0.11%Closing price141.99Point;
GBP depreciation0.23%Closing price1.2794Point;
澳元贬值0.39%Closing price0.6850Point;
Depreciation of Swiss franc0.2%Closing price0.8958；
Depreciation of the New Zealand dollar0.56%Closing price0.6201Point;
Canadian dollar depreciation0.09%Closing price1.3210Points.
综合来看，美元指数微幅波动，非美货币普遍贬值，但贬值幅度均相对有限。

today9:30，澳洲联储公布6月会议就要，致使澳元短期内出现剧烈下跌。澳洲联储主席洛威提到：“澳洲联储的决策现在是由数据驱动的，关键问题是通胀率在7%左右，而不是2-3%的目标水平”。高通胀问题仍然是澳洲联储加息的核心动力，但加息已经无法对澳元币值形成有效提振，原因是市场人士认为重启加息只是暂时的，全球中央银行的货币政策趋势正从紧缩转向宽松。加元的贬值幅度仅为0.09%，是主要币种当中贬值幅度最小的一个。原因在于，加元是商品货币，其币值受到国际油价的显著影响。最近几个交易日，国际油价大幅反弹，市价重新回到70dollar/桶上方，加元币值受到提振。


长周期角度看，1980年至今，美元指数经历了三轮强势周期，两轮弱势周期。强势周期持续时间分别为5Year6Year8年，如果剔除强势周期当中的漫长震荡期，则平均强势周期约为5年。弱势周期持续时间分别为10Year13年，剔除震荡期后，平均弱势周期约为8Year.5and8均为斐波那契数列，且相邻。2022year9月份，美元指数创出114.79的数年高位，市价进入超买高估区。截至今日，美元指数市价102.53，累计跌幅超10%，初现筑顶迹象。如果美元指数市价跌破100点整数关口，并且美联储结束紧缩货币政策进入宽松周期，则美元的弱势周期基本确定。


中短周期角度看，美元指数在2022year9Touching a high point in the month114.79We have completed a round of appreciation cycle and will enter a long depreciation cycle. From a short-term perspective, the bearish characteristics of the US dollar index trend are extremely significant,5month31Since the beginning of the day, the cumulative decline has reached1.60%It is expected to continue the decline this week. market price102.38, running on0.618分位附近，技术角度看，存在反弹的可能性。短线支撑位101.72Short line resistance level102.75Points.


this year3month7日以来，澳元汇率围绕（0.6600~0.6820）中枢波动，市价每一次远离该中枢时，都会出现向中枢回归的动力。6month16日，澳元汇率涨至最高0.6900，出现原理中枢的迹象。最近两个交易日，澳元汇率累计下跌1.18%，开始向中枢上限0.6820回归。预计本轮下跌将会持续一段时间，直至市价跌破到中枢下限0.6600。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-06-20