Ultima MarketsMarket analysis: The pressure of interest rate hikes from the Bank of England is enormous 25Base point capital...

本周重点关注品种--GBP USD。

Fundamentally,本周英国央行的加息是板上钉钉，但是需要关注是加息基点是多少，以及未来预期的峰值利率。英国4月的通胀率虽然出现了下降，但是核心通胀却意外高涨，并且触及近一年的高点。

明天周三英国将公布最新的5月份通胀数据，若依旧出现这样的背离趋势，意味着跟百姓息息相关的物价正进一步上行，本周的英国加息基点甚至可能飙升至50基点。英镑在进一步紧缩的货币政策下势必将继续升值上行。

（蓝柱英国核心通胀vs黑线英国通胀）

Technically,英镑兑美元周线周期来到了240周期均线下方，英镑技术角度上能否长期保持升值趋势就看该关键的价格区域。

（英镑兑美元周线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4）

周线周期上由于下方短期均线开始纷纷出现金叉多头信号，短期多头情绪还是较为明显。

(GBP/USD daily chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

日线周期上，15Daily moving average and21日均线金叉在200日均线上方，同时英镑兑美元在短期均线发生金叉信号时出现有效回踩再突破，这是“健康”的稳定多头信号。

(GBP USD)4Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

4小时周期上，行情在突破上行通道后，有一定的回调动力，本周关注38.2%的斐波那契回撤位置，这一位置也是通道线的上沿一带。

(GBP USD)1Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level1.27956，

1.27956Upward bullish, first goal1.28198Second objective1.28601

1.27956Under bearish, first target1.27532Second objective1.27275

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