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Brent crude oil rose to75.45附近,因美元走软及最大原油进口国中国的炼油厂加工量跃升,使得油价短线上行提振。
在利多数据方面,美元走弱促进石油需求,科威特国家石油公司KPC的首席执行官表示,中国石油需求预计将在今年下半年以有保证的速度继续攀升。周四公布的数据显示,中国5月炼油厂加工量同比增长15.4%,创史上第二高水平。 Price Futures GroupAnalyst forPhil Flynn表示,中国炼油厂的数据开启了油价的反弹趋势。然后,美元下跌部分原因是美联储暂停加息,而在欧洲仍在加息。此外,美国三大股市全数收涨,包含标普指数攀升1.22%The Dow Jones industrial average rose1.26%And the Nasdaq Index rose1.15%。
而在利空数据方面,石油市场似乎正在调整对今年晚些时候原油供应紧张的预期,尽管OPEC+产油国集团计划进一步减产,但近期和远期合约之间的差距正在缩小。即期价格和六个月 futures的价差过去一周急剧缩小,表明市场对今年晚些时候供不应求的担忧缓解。此外,据CMEFederal Reserve Observation7Monthly interest rate maintained at5.00%-5.25%The constant probability is33%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is67%; reach9The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is28.4%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is62.2%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is9.4%。
总而言之,油价受中国炼油厂数据强劲和美元走软而提振,不过石油期货跨期价差急剧缩小,表明原油供应紧缩担忧缓解,限制了油价的涨势;日内重点将关注美国6月密歇根消费者信心及美联储官员讲话。
Press from above(Upper resistance) 75.40,75.90; From the downward direction, the lower support75.00。
CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.
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