ATFXIf the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, gold may plummet to1900

There are risks in investing, please remind everyone to stay away from black platforms! Today Wednesday, the United States announced a continuous11Months ofCPIAfter the data decline, the likelihood of the market believing that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates has increased to95.9%. But what if something unexpected happens?

On Tuesday, gold prices fluctuated upwards throughout the day, withCPIAfter the announcement, it rose1970In, it plummeted again and finally barely managed to hold on1940Annual level. In Wednesday's trading in Sanya, the gold price has been consistently below1950Under pressure. As of the afternoon press release, the quotation is per ounce1947.1USD.

Tomorrow morning Beijing time2The Federal Reserve will announce its latest6The monthly interest rate resolution will be followed by Powell attending a press conference.

The market generally expects that the report will persuade policymakers to give up raising interest rates this month, but it does not rule out the possibility of a final rate hike before the end of the tightening cycle.

last nightCPIAfter the data was released, according to Chishang ExchangeFedWatchTool display, market bet14The probability of announcing a pause in interest rate hikes has skyrocketed to95.9%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25% - 5.50%The probability of is only4.1%。

since3month22In recent days, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates ten times in a row, with the federal funds rate rising from2007year8Since the beginning of the month, it has risen to5.00%——5.25%The high order of.

Nomura Senior Economist of the United StatesAichi AmemiyaFederal Reserve officials may not respond strongly to the latest inflation report.

Currently,goldThe focus of the market will be on the latest economic forecasts, dot charts, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference.

Analysts say that the Federal Reserve may6The month's decision was described as a "pause" rather than a "maintenance" to appease hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Due to the Federal Open Market Commission(FOMC)Tending towards further interest rate hikes, financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rate stability next week,7Month or9Monthly interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point exceeding50%。

Considering this, the Federal Reserve may implement a "hawkish pause", which means sticking to its ground while issuing tough signals.