ATFXGlobal Exchange Market0614：受CPI数据影响美指下跌，英镑升值幅度超...

隔夜，美元指数下跌0.3%, closing at103.31Point,
Same period: Euro appreciation0.32%Closing price1.0793Point;
Depreciation of the Japanese yen0.44%Closing price140.22Point;
GBP appreciation0.8%Closing price1.2612Point;
Appreciation of the Australian dollar0.22%Closing price0.6766Point;
Swiss franc appreciation0.42%Closing price0.9051；
NZD appreciation0.46%Closing price0.6150Point;
Canadian dollar appreciation0.4%Closing price1.3314Points.
综合来看，英镑升值幅度最大，日元超预期贬值。

5month26日至今，英镑累计升值幅度2.3%；同期欧元的升值幅度仅为0.6%，仅为英镑的四分之一，本轮美元贬值过程中，英镑表现极为亮眼。欧元升值幅度偏小，主要是受到俄乌问题的拖累，在避险情绪的影响下，国际金融市场对欧元保持警惕。欧央行虽然仍在向外界透露加息信号，但国际金融市场对于货币政策大转向已经形成共识，只不过具体转向的月份存在分歧。我们预期，随着美元指数的下跌，英镑相比欧元具有更大的升值潜力。日元受日本央行YCC政策的抑制，存在“易贬难升”的特征，比如昨日美元贬值0.3%，大部分非美货币都在升值，只有日元出现了0.44%的大幅贬值。本周五将会有日本央行的利率决议结果，改变当前超级宽松货币政策的概率极低。由于近期国际油价存在下跌压力，加元的币值有可能出现动摇。澳元币值与铁矿石futures价格关联度较高，近期铁矿价格迅猛上涨，澳元升值幅度有望超过美指下跌幅度。


From a technical perspective, the US dollar index is in a downward trend in the short term. Considering the volatile structure in the medium term, this round of decline may reach the support zone:100.78Nearby. from5month31Daily high104.7Since then, the US dollar index has fallen11Accumulated decline for trading days0.76%，跌势较缓。周四凌晨2:00将有美联储利率决议结果公布，维持5.25%的基准利率上限概率较高，美元指数有可能受冲击而再次下跌。需要提醒的是，美联储超预期加息的概率仍存在，果真加息25基点的话，美元指数有可能出现0.5%以上的涨幅。


技术角度看，英镑的长期走势存在空转多的迹象。2022year9月份创出新低1.0366，之后开启大规模反弹，截至今日累计反弹幅度为16.34%，大超市场预期。当前市价1.2623, running on0.5~0.618分位区间内，强阻力位置在1.2766，有可能在本月遇阻回落。强支撑位置在1.2311处。俄乌问题虽然也会对英镑的币值构成影响，但由于英国已经在2016年公投脱欧，所以俄乌问题的负面冲击已经降到最低。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-06-14