Guide Metallographer:6.14Today's gold trend analysis, USCPI数据低于市场预期

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(6month13day)Close down again, opening price1955.14dollar/Ounces, highest price1970.69dollar/Ounces, lowest price1941.89dollar/Ounces, closing price1942.94dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday5After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate recorded0.1%, lower than market expectations0.2%, previous value is0.4%； U.S.A5Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate recorded4%, lower than market expectations4.1%, previous value is4.9%； U.S.A5Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate recorded5.3%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of5.5%。


　　评论称，今天的CPI数据降幅超出市场预期，但它们本可以更低，因为目前的数据仍然高于平均水平。对美联储来说，这意味着周四加息的可能性继续缩小，而这才是市场所关心的。这个CPI报告是否会影响美联储的点阵图还不好判断，一些鹰派成员可能会觉得他们继续加息的呼吁是正确的，他们可能会推动他们对利率上升的预测。然而，重要的是要注意，到7月做出决定还有时间，到12月甚至还有更长的时间，点阵图表示年底的利率。目前市场可能需要保持冷静，等待点阵图和美联储主席鲍威尔的到来。


Federal Reserve SpeakerNick Timiraos：5月份的通胀率约为去年峰值的一半，但仍远高于美联储官员希望看到的水平。美联储将于本周召开货币政策会议，决定下一步采取哪些措施来冷却通胀，他们希望通胀率保持在2%。他们可能在会议上维持利率不变，同时准备在夏季或秋季再次加息，如果他们认为在通胀方面没有取得足够的进展的话。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged during the monthly interest rate meeting is93.1%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is6.9%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is35.4%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is60.3%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is4.3%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain4Three months in a monthGDPMonthly rate


　　14:00britain4Commodity Trade Account after Monthly Adjustment


　　14:00britain4Monthly industrial and manufacturing output rate


　　17:00eurozone4Monthly industrial output rate


　　20:30U.S.A5monthPPIAnnual and monthly rates


The next day02:00Federal Reserve Announces Summary of Interest Rate Resolutions and Economic Expectations


The next day02:30Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Holds a Press Conference


Technical analysis of gold:


　　昨日金价技术面冲高承压1971关口再度迎来压制回落破底收盘，亚欧盘企稳1956关口震荡反弹回升，午后反复冲高刺破1966一线承压回落走跌，美盘前加速下行回落至1957关口附近陷入震荡拉锯，最终在晚间CPI数据影响下金价迎来冲高刺破1971关口承压回落破底，凌晨金价延续下行跌破1950Arrival at the checkpoint1942附近弱势收盘，日kThe overall price is within the range of1970上方再度呈现压制震荡形态，目前来看金价还有进一步下行回落预期。


From4小时分析图来看，短线有望再度试探前期低点1939-40一线支撑力度，今日上方压力关注昨日美盘二次反抽高点1955-57附近，日内反抽依托此位置继续主空再看回落，下方支撑关注前期低点1939-40附近，日内先行依托此区间看多空震荡运行，近期多空震荡分水岭1960一线，日线级别未突破并站稳此位置之前依旧保持反抽主空节奏，具体操作策略我会在盘中提示，及时关注。


Golden Operation Strategy:


　　1Rebound1955-1957Short on the first line, stop loss1963, Objective1940frontline;


　　2Step back1939-1940一线不破可以多，止损1932, Objective1950-1953frontline;