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Brentcrude oil (Brent Oil)：

Brent crude oil rose to74.01附近，因市场聚焦美联储维持利率不变的预期，且OPEC数据显示沙特的减产将大幅收紧石油市场，OPEC上调中国需求增长预测，使得油价获得上行提振。

在利多数据方面，根据CME美联储观察最新调查指出，美联储6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged during the monthly interest rate meeting is93.1%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is6.9%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is35.4%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is60.3%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is4.3%。 OPEC的数据显示，沙特最新的石油减产将在下个月大幅收紧全球市场。不过在沙特一周前出人意料地宣布新的减产措施前，欧佩克就预计随着疫情后燃料需求的复苏，全球库存将在下半年迅速消耗。 OPEC月报显示，下个月全球每日石油消费量将比供应量高出约270万桶。如果沙特选择将减产延长至整个第三季度，这将是自2021年以来的最大赤字。石油输出国组织OPEC连续第四个月保持对今年全球石油需求增长预测不变，但上调中国需求增长预测。此外，美国三大股市全数收涨，包含标普指数收盘上涨0.70%The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher0.43%And the Nasdaq Index closed higher0.83%。

In terms of bearish data, the American Petroleum InstituteAPI数据公布上周美国原油和燃料油库存上升，截至6month9日的一周，原油库存增加了102.4万桶及汽油库存增加207.5万桶。此外，布伦特原油六个月逆价差，即较短期限的futures价格高于较长期限的期货价格的市场结构，跌至约1.10USD3月以来最低，表明对今年需求将超过供应的信心有所动摇。

总而言之，油价受美联储本周会议维持利率不变及OPEC数据显示沙特的减产将大幅收紧石油市场等因素而支撑，不过上周美国原油库存意外增加及今年需求超过供应的信心有所动摇，限制了油价的涨势；日内重点将关注美联储利率决议及IEA月度报告。

Press from above(Upper resistance) 74.00，74.40； From the downward direction, the lower support73.70。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.