ATFXInternational: Meiyou Breaks Through70USD level, oil distribution fell to key support

Major global economiesGDPThe growth rate is relatively low. In the first quarter of this year, the United StatesGDPThe annual growth rate is1.6%, Eurozone is1%Japan1.3%Germany is negative0.5%Considering that inflation rates in most European and American countries are5%Therefore, the actual situation of the above-mentioned countriesGDPLogically, it is in a negative growth state. ChineseGDPThe growth rate is4.5%Ranked first among major economies (excluding India). Meanwhile, China's inflation rate is only0.2%BelowGDPThe growth rate is in a real positive state of macroeconomic growth. However, the main regions of global oil demand are concentrated in Europe and North America, and the low growth economic situation of European and American countries determinescrude oilThe demand side is relatively pessimistic.


Given the sluggish demand side, if the supply side can significantly reduce production capacity, crude oil prices can also remain high. OPEC+Member countries are actively reducing production: this year4At the beginning of the month, multipleOPEC+The member states suddenly announced the implementation of voluntary oil production reduction, with a total reduction of approximately16010000 barrels/Day, accounting for% of global oil production1.5%Left and right; At the beginning of this month, the daily crude oil production of OPEC and non OPEC producing countries was adjusted to daily4046.3Ten thousand barrels, compared to current production,2024The daily crude oil production has been reduced by about140Ten thousand barrels; On the same day, Saudi Arabia unilaterally announced that7Starting from this month, we will voluntarily reduce crude oil production again10010000 barrels/Voluntarily reducing crude oil production from now on5010000 barrels/Daily increase to15010000 barrels/Day, for a period of one month, the production reduction measures can be considered for extension. Under the triple positive factors,WTIPrices remain stable at70Above the US dollar, even attempted to break even earlier this month75USD. However, if the magnitude of the production reduction cannot be multiplied, it will eventually face the problem of diminishing marginal utility. In the past three trading days,WTISharp decline, cumulative decline exceeding7%The market price has returned70Below the US dollar.


From a technical perspective,WTIStill in a long-term bearish trend, facing short-term and medium-term challenges63.64The strong support of the US dollar.2022year3Month to date,WTIAfter three rounds of adjustment, but none of them were able to change the bearish trend structure. this year3Since mid month, it has formed63.64Strong support range near the US dollar.WTIWhether the short-term downward band can break through this support determines the trend of oil prices for a long time in the future. Due to the increasing signs of economic recession in European and American countries, we believe thatWTIThe probability of breaking down the support is relatively high.


The technical trend of Brent crude oil andWTIBasically the same, but the key support for Brent crude oil is70Dollar integer level. Due to differences in oil quality, Brent crude oil has consistently been quoted higher thanWTIThe latest price difference between crude oil and crude oil today is5USD. Brent crude oil is mainly supplied to European countries. Due to the impact of the Russia Ukraine issue, the probability of the European economy falling into recession is very high, so Brent crude oil has broken down70The possibility of the US dollar level is high.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-06-13