Guide Metallographer:6.13Today's gold trend analysis, USCPIData or policy adjustments due to changes

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(6month12day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1959.89dollar/Ounces, highest price1966.77dollar/Ounces, lowest price1949.01dollar/Ounces, closing price1955.22dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The New York Fed's survey of consumer expectations shows that,5Consumer expectations for inflation in the coming year in the previous month4.45%lower4.07%, creating2021year5The lowest inflation expectations for the next three years since the beginning of the month2.89%Ascend to2.98%. Expected median increase in housing prices from2.52%Ascend to2.64%, creating2022year7The highest since the beginning of the month. The expected median income growth rate for the next year will increase from2.96%lower2.8%. Consumers expect gasoline prices to rise in the next year5.07%Food prices are expected to rise5.39%Medical expenses will rise9.18%College tuition fees will increase7.12%Rent will increase9.13%. It is expected that the proportion of consumers who cannot reach the minimum debt repayment level in the next three months will be10.60%Up to11.32%。


Bank of AmericaCEOThe Federal Reserve can temporarily suspend interest rate hikes, but cannot say that "interest rate hikes have ended". relative to2%For the target, the inflation rate in the United States is still too high.(U.S.A)The economy is slowing down. The banks in the United States are in good condition and are making profits.


Citigroup StrategistRaghav DatlaBond traders may have underestimated the extent to which inflation rates have fallen. He pointed out that the current inflation expectations for the next few years have exceeded2023At the beginning of the year, despite the tightening of the financial environment, the year-on-year inflation rate has decreased, and the unemployment rate and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits have increased. Therefore, in the5On the eve of the monthly inflation data release, the Citigroup strategy team did not believe that the market had fully reflected the downward risk of inflation, and the Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Wednesday. Traders bet that officials will keep interest rates unchanged and remain5%-5.25%This will be15For the first time in six months, it remained unchanged. However, swap contract transactions still show that the Federal Reserve7Monthly Council Interest Rate Increase Agreement24Basis points.


Moody's analysis suggests that if the Federal Open Market Committee maintains the federal funds rate unchanged, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will adopt hawkish forward-looking guidance and there is a high possibility of further interest rate hikes. In the absence of clear evidence that inflation continues to decline and US demand is cooling, we believe that the Federal Reserve will not signal a permanent pause in interest rate hikes. Given the strong performance of the US economy, the Federal Reserve may6Month or7Raise interest rates again on a monthly basis.


Dutch International Bank stated that due to the possibility of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the fourth quarter of this year, the US dollar should decline significantly by the end of the year. Analysts at the bank stated in a report that the Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates for the last time this summer, but is expected to significantly lower rates in the fourth quarter after deflation becomes more pronounced in the third quarter. This means that we are still looking for the beginning of a cyclical bear market trend that has lasted for many years, possibly starting from the third quarter.


Analysis shows that compared to the same period last year,5Month as a wholeCPIThe inflation rate will significantly slow down to4.0%(The previous value is4.9%)The annual rate of core inflation will slow down more significantly to5.2%(The previous value is5.5%). This sharp decline is mainly due to the huge negative base effect, because since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict last year,12The month long window period for oil price increases has ended. This cardinality effect is6Of the monthCPIIt should be more evident in the report that the overall annual inflation rate is likely to decrease by then3%The low order of. In addition, it is expected that5Monthly CoreCPIThe monthly rate will slightly decrease to0.3%(The previous value is0.4%). Unless5monthCPIThere is a significant increase in data, otherwiseFOMCWill be on6Suspend interest rate hikes at the monthly meeting.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day0.32Tons, current position is931.44Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged during the monthly interest rate meeting is79.1%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is20.9%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is26.1%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is59.9%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is14.0%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Germany5monthCPIMonthly rate final value


　　14:00britain4Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　14:00britain5Monthly unemployment rate


　　14:00britain5Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits


　　17:00Germany6monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone6monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　18:00U.S.A5monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　20:30U.S.A5After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate


Technical analysis of gold:


The recent trend of gold is a very obvious fluctuating trend, and the strength of the European market is not related to the US market, so there is no reference value. However, the current market on the weekly chart is still a very obvious weakness, with the short positions on the moving average being arranged, and the pressure level above also starting to move downwardMA10Corresponding to the support position of1980On the front line, this is also a strong pressure position this week and can be seen as a long and short watershed in the current general direction1983-1985Not far apart, so overall, gold continues to maintain1985The bearish outlook below remains unchanged, and the overall direction is still short. Therefore, in terms of trading, we try to maintain a high-altitude mentality, but short-term betting on low and multiple orders can also result in small profits and exits.


From a short-term perspective, the daily bullish trend is flat and the moving average is stuck, which has little reference value. However, the downward trend of the daily trend is clearly insufficient. According to the technical trend, it should be about to usher in another waterfall like decline. Therefore, we are patiently waiting for the market bears to fully exert their strength4The hourly trend is also the same, with short-term pressure above1965Nearby, this is also the area where the upper high level continues to oscillate and suppress, so short-term considerations can be made in the1965Short selling, if given1968You can increase your position once, and there will be an increase in the US market tonightCPIData release, so for now, we will only grasp short-term operations before data release!


Analysis of gold short-term trading points:


　　1Gold Today's Short Term Can Be Above1965-1968Short selling in batches and stop losing1974For now, let's take a look at the empty single target below1958-1955Low point!


　　2Reached below before the release of gold data1955-1950Nearby support can also consider taking long bets to gain short-term rebound and stop losses1947For now, let's take a look at the top for more orders1958-1963Pass!


　　3Today's key trading focus for gold is still on the US marketCPIThe release of data depends on whether the market can further break the limit, and real-time ideas can only be provided to customers who are trading in real time!