ATFXGlobal Exchange Market0613The overnight US dollar index fluctuated slightly, with the Swiss franc currently experiencing a significant depreciation

Overnight, the US dollar index slightly rose0.07%, closing at103.62Point,
Same period: Euro appreciation0.07%Closing price1.0759Point;
Depreciation of the Japanese yen0.18%Closing price139.61Point;
GBP depreciation0.55%Closing price1.2512Point;
Appreciation of the Australian dollar0.1%Closing price0.6751Point;
Depreciation of Swiss franc0.64%Closing price0.9089；
Depreciation of the New Zealand dollar0.11%Closing price0.6122Point;
Canadian dollar depreciation0.19%Closing price1.3367Points.
Overall, except for the euro, other non US currencies have depreciated.

Although the euro has appreciated, the magnitude is only0.07%It can be seen as a small oscillation. The Swiss franc has the highest volatility, with only a decline in the US dollar index0.07%Under the circumstances, the Swiss franc unexpectedly depreciated0.64%. Switzerland5Monthly nominalCPIThe growth rate is2.2%, lower than the previous value2.6%Within a moderate inflation range; Latest unemployment rate1.9%, lower than the previous value2%In a state of full employment. benchmark interest rate1.5%In the upward channel, but due to the absence of high inflation issues, the expectation of interest rate hikes is not strong. The biggest macroeconomic problem in Switzerland lies in low growth. In the first quarter of this yearGDPThe growth rate is only0.6%The previous value is also only0.7%Almost zero growth. Faced with mild inflation and low growth, we believe that the most important thing the Swiss Central Bank should do is to stop its aggressive interest rate hike policy and wait and see for a period of time. However, recently Swiss Central Bank Governor Jordan stated that the battle against inflation is not over and they must ensure that inflation rates continue to return2%At this stage, the possibility of further tightening monetary policy cannot be ruled out. It can be seen that President Jordan does not believe that Switzerland2.2%The level of inflation can continue to exist, and aggressive interest rate hikes must be implemented to effectively curb the scale of inflation.


From a technical perspective, the US dollar index is in a downward trend in the short term. Considering the volatile structure in the medium term, this round of decline may reach the support zone:100.78Nearby. from5month31Daily high104.7Since then, the US dollar index has fallen9Accumulated decline for trading days0.65%The decline was relatively slow. Today's US market period will be announced5Month USACPIAnnual growth rate, previous value is4.9%Expected value is4.1%If the latest value does indeed decrease significantly compared to the previous value0.8A percentage point indicates that the US macroeconomic situation is characterized by a recession, and the probability of the Federal Reserve stopping interest rate hikes increases significantly, which may accelerate the short-term decline of the US dollar index.


From a technical perspective,USDCHFIn a long period of volatility, the short to medium term trend has a bearish characteristic.2011Since the European debt crisis in,USDCHFThe fluctuation limit is1.0320The lower limit is0.7000For over a decade, we have not been able to break through this range. Latest market price of Swiss franc exchange rate0.9044Relatively speaking, it is at an upper middle level and has the technical motivation to continue to decline. From the latest rebound band, the highest point of the rebound has reached0.5At the quantile, distancegoldsegmentation0.618There is still some distance between the quantiles, so the rebound may not end easily.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-06-13