ATFX:U.S.A5monthCPIData may increase significantly, exacerbating the oscillation of gold prices

There are risks in investment, please be careful not to be deceived when investing! Entering this week, the market will welcome interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan, while the United States5monthCPIImportant economic data such as retail sales data will also be released intensively. Market participants remind that the announcement made the day before the FOMC decision5monthCPIThere is a risk of explosive growth in data, and the trend of overall inflation below core inflation may continue. If the monthly core inflation rate is higher than the market's generally expected0.4%It may further increase market expectations for interest rate hikes.

Last week, the US dollar index underwent a significant adjustment, with a weekly decline of0.48%. The price of precious metals rebounded.CMXgoldrise0.58%，CMXsilver(24.33，-0.08，-0.31%)rise2.95%The gold and silver ratio is significantly weaker.

MayerfuturesThe macro group of researchers pointed out that the United States announced last week5monthISMNon manufacturingPMIThe index is50.3Significantly lower than market expectations52.4And before value51.9, the second lowest level in the past year. This indicates that the US economy is constrained by high interest rates, and the service industry is also beginning to be significantly affected. At the same time, the weekly unemployment claims released by the United States last Thursday were much higher than expected, further exacerbating market concerns about economic recession, which led to a significant adjustment in the US dollar index and a rebound in precious metal prices.

meanwhile,The Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases data based on location changes(CFTC),by6month10Week of Day,CMXSpeculative net long positions in gold futures have increased6312Year to114165year,Weak proportion of long-term short positions rebounding5.8%to85.7%,andCMXSpeculative net long positions have slightly increased in silver futures prices4000,The strength of weaknesses has decreased compared to long short positions1.37%reach40.3%. It can be seen that speculative bulls such as hedge funds have different views on the future trends of precious metal gold and silver, mainly based on the credit logic of the medium to long term US dollar. They continue to be bullish on gold and weak on silver, in order to raise interest rates and suppress the short-term economy.

They pointed out that in the medium term, with the breakthrough of the US debt ceiling and the loosening of constraints on government spending plans, the disguised loose fiscal policy will inevitably affect the resilience of far end inflation and weaken the effect of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, in the short term, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to very high levels, and interest rate sensitive industries such as banks, real estate, and manufacturing have shown significant damage, making the space for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve relatively limited.

In the group's view, the Federal Reserve6The probability of suspending interest rate hikes during monthly interest rate meetings is relatively high. On the one hand, it's because5The contraction of the US manufacturing industry further expanded in the month, with non manufacturing industriesPMIAccidental contraction near the Rong Ku line. Meanwhile, based on non agricultural employment data such as unemployment applications, it is predicted that the US job market gap is accelerating to fill. On the other hand, after the US debt ceiling was broken, the Ministry of Finance concentrated on issuing treasury bond and bonds to supplement the cash in ordinary accounts. It is estimated that the monthly incremental financing demand is as high as3000USD100mn The market is facing short-term liquidity pressure, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be slightly relaxed to provide financing conditions.

Therefore, we believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be on the sidelines for a period of time until the resilience of mid to long term inflation is clearly reflected. Short term US bond interest rates will face a dual effect of liquidity pressure and policy marginal easing, which is expected to be mainly volatile, thereby suppressing the upward space of precious metal prices, and gold prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels

In the medium and long term, they believe that the US debt predicament makes inflation difficult to reach within one to two years2%The policy target is expected to maintain inflation at3% -3.5%The interval of. Meanwhile, according to the current interest rate hike endpoint(5.08%), which is equivalent to1.65% - 2.1%The actual interest rate is expected to be in US dollars for gold1900dollar/ounce- 2100dollar/Fluctuations between ounces, gold prices will fluctuate for a long time near historical highs