ATFX环球汇市：上周美指显著回落，澳元受铁矿石期货影响...

上周，美元指数下跌0.48%, closing at103.55Point, same period: Euro appreciation0.4%Closing price1.0751Point; Appreciation of the Japanese yen0.42%Closing price139.36Point; GBP appreciation1.05%Closing price1.2581Point; Appreciation of the Australian dollar2.09%Closing price0.6744点；瑞郎升值0.64%Closing price0.9031; Appreciation of the New Zealand dollar1.16%Closing price0.6129点；加元升值0.66%Closing price1.3341点。综合来看，澳元升值幅度最大，欧元升值幅度最小。

美元指数贬值的主要原因是市场预期美联储将停止激进加息，时间点在本周四凌晨2:00的利率决议。过去十个月，美国名义CPIGrowth rate from9.1%Descend to4.9%，高通胀问题已经显著缓解。加息的主要目的是遏制高通胀，美联储继续加息的理由已经不存在。5月份非农就业报告显示，美国失业率从3.4%Raise to3.7%，劳动力市场存在趋坏迹象，高利率的负面作用开始显现。美国一季度GDPThe annual growth rate is1.6%，处于较低水平，宏观经济扩张性不足。三项数据均不支持美联储继续加息，所以市场预期美联储维持基准利率不变符合逻辑。澳元能够实现2%以上的升值幅度，主要受到澳洲联储加息和铁矿石价格持续高位运行的影响。


From a technical perspective, the US dollar index is in a downward trend in the short term. Considering the volatile structure in the medium term, this round of decline may reach the support zone:100.78Nearby. from5month31Daily high104.7算起，美元指数累计下跌9Accumulated decline for trading days0.65%，跌势较缓。明日美盘时段将会公布5Month USACPI增速年率，如果最新值相比前值大幅下降，美联储停止加息的概率大增，有可能会加速美元指数下跌。


技术角度看，澳元汇率从支撑区域向阻力区域运动，即将触及阻力位0.6819，考虑到本轮上涨结构极其流畅，本周突破0.6819的概率较高。澳洲联储超预期加息，紧缩货币政策仍在延续，这与美联储即将停止激进加息的预期形成鲜明对比，澳元因此走强。另外，澳元是商品货币，币值与铁矿石futuresThere is resonance.5month26日至今，铁矿石期货累计涨幅达到15.35%，成为驱动澳元升值的主要力量。通过对比铁矿石期货和澳元汇率的日K线走势图可以发现，两者的形态极度相似。今日，铁矿石期货大跌1.81%，澳元汇率有可能受到拖累。

欧元在上周的非美货币升值潮中表现较差，其累计升值幅度甚至小于美元指数的贬值幅度。主要原因在于，欧元区受到俄乌问题的拖累，投资市场信心不振。虽然欧央行大概率在本周四再次加息，货币政策相对美联储具有显著优势，但只要俄乌问题不结束，欧元大概率难迎大涨走势。

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2023-06-12