CPT MarketsRumors of a temporary agreement between the United States and Iran are suppressing the rise in gold prices! Follow the top three this week...

gold/dollar (XAUUSD)：

黄金兑美元上周五收盘微幅震荡回落后，收盘盘整在1961.24附近，尽管短线金价受美伊临时协定传闻而小幅疲软，但诸多因素将看涨；本周焦点集中在美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行利率决议。

In terms of positive factors

1. Federal Reserve6月决议不加息预期：由于近期经济数据整体疲软，市场对美联储的鹰派押注大幅降低。据CME美联储观察工具显示，美联储6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is74.8%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is25.2%;reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is34%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is52.3%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is13.8%。

2. 美国经济数据整体疲弱：上周一公布的美国5月服务业数据表现不佳。数据显示，美国5monthISM非制造业指数意外降至50.3, creating2023年新低。此外，美国初请失业金人数表现不佳，上周四美国劳工部DOLThe published weekly data shows that as of6month3The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week has increased26.1Ten thousand, for2021year10月以来的最高数据，美元受美债收益率转头下跌拖累加速下行。

3. 全球经济放缓市场情绪脆弱：从美中国澳欧英国的最新的悲观统计数据来看，最近主要经济体面临的挑战重新引发了对经济衰退的担忧。经济合作与发展组织OECD预测，由于持续的核心通货膨胀和紧缩的货币政策对需求造成压力，全球经济在未来几年内将会出现疲软的复苏。经合组织现在预计，今年全球经济将增长2.7%。如果不包括受大流行影响的2020年，这仍将是自2008-2009年金融危机以来最低的年增长率。

4. goldETF持续流入：世界黄金协会报告显示，5月全球实物黄金ETF继续保持正向需求，实现连续第三个月流入。截至5月底，全球黄金ETF总持仓达到3,478吨，较上月增加19吨。此外，该协会认为美国债务上限谈判和投资者对银行业系统性危机的持续担忧也促使投资者纷纷寻求避险资产，从而推动了5Monthly goldETF的正向需求。

Press from above(Upper resistance) 1961.20，1963.40； From the downward direction, the lower support1959.80。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.