Guide Metallographer:6.8Today's Gold Trend Analysis, Federal Reserve6Expectations of monthly interest rate hikes heating up

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Thursday(6month8day)，国际金价小幅走高，但由于投资者等待美联储政策前景变得更加明晰，金价距离隔夜低点1939.62dollar/盎司不远。但长期来看，金市不乏利多，一些央行意外加息加剧了全球经济转型乏力引发的担忧，金价下跌为建立新的多头头寸提供了机会。


MumbaiKedia Commoditiesexecutive directorAjay Kedia表示，黄金价格受到美联储下周利率维稳预期的支撑，价格停留在1930USD to1985美元区间，一旦美联储做出决定，金价可能会突破区间上限。


　　CME的“联储观察”最新显示，美联储在6month13Solstice14日的会议维持利率不变的可能性为65.5%。这将是美联储自去年3月启动加息以来首次按兵不动。


　　但即使6月份暂停，下次会议也可能会进一步加息，因为通胀仍处于极端高位。前里士满联储主席Jeffrey Lacker提到利率应升至6%，以降低顽固的通胀。


　　美国财政部长耶伦周三表示，强劲的消费者支出使美国经济保持了弹性。她觉得可以在保持劳动力市场乐观的情况下阻止通货膨胀，失业率在4%的范围内，比5Of the month3.7%略有上升。


　　投资者担心美联储更多加息会使经济前景恶化，整体市场情绪仍旧谨慎。美国5月份消费者通胀报告将于美联储6月会议开始当天(6month13day)Announced, investors will have a clearer understanding of the health status of the world's largest economy.


　　鉴于在下周美国消费者物价指数(CPI)公布以及美联储和欧洲央行会议召开前，人们的持仓欲望可能会下降，金价继续在当前水平附近展开盘整似乎是最有可能的。


　　强劲的就业数据表明，美联储需要进一步收紧货币政策，以使通胀回到目标区间。虽然这对黄金来说仍是短期不利因素，但长期来看不乏利多，一些央行意外加息加剧了全球经济转型乏力引发的担忧，黄金价格下跌为建立新的多头头寸提供了买入机会。


　　加拿大央行周三(6month7day)意外上调隔夜贷款利率25Bps to4.75%, creating22年新高。市场参与者和分析师立即预测，加拿大央行下个月将再次加息，以缓解过热的经济和居高不下的通胀。之前一天，澳洲联储也意外加息25Basis points.


Today's Gold Data:


　　17:00Eurozone Q1GDPAnnual rate final value


　　17:00Quarterly employment rate in the Eurozone after quarterly adjustment in the first quarter


　　20:30From the United States to6month3Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　22:00U.S.A4Monthly wholesale sales rate


Technical analysis of gold:


On the previous trading day, gold continued to decline after a volatile rebound and fell below the previous low level, reaching near the previous low. Overall, the market trend of gold still fluctuates within the trend structure range. After the Bank of Canada raised interest rates, spot gold plummeted more than30The US dollar once fell below1940The US dollar barrier. This targeted decline may have a certain guiding effect. However, it is still unknown whether there will be an expectation of a second surge in gold after data and news have faded. The last two trading days of this week will be crucial as we need to closely monitor market changes and potential influencing factors.


At present, the daily trend of gold is still in a relatively low area, and the short-term high and low points are gradually moving downwards. Overall, the market is still in a bearish and volatile state. However, bears have not fully dominated the market, and the strength of the pullback and the space for downward exploration are relatively small, and the market trend is quite tortuous. This indicates that although the market is generally bearish, bears have not fully dominated. In this trend, if bears cannot act in large quantities, it is easy for bulls to launch a counterattack. Therefore, when laying out, one should not be overly bullish or bearish, but rather observe short-term changes in strength to determine the timing of long and short positions. Otherwise, blindly chasing short positions may miss the opportunity or be swept out by the market. In today's trading, it is still necessary for both long and short positions to cooperate and participate, and to be cautious of rebounds.


Gold was hit by a heavy downtrend yesterday, but it rebounded slightly at the beginning of trading today1945Nearby. The main news now still depends on the specific situation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in June and the suspension of interest rate hikes. The main news in the market now leans towards the suspension of interest rate hikes, and the Federal Reserve has also entered a period of silence, so the market is now more sensitive than before. The resumption of tightening after the Bank of Canada suspended interest rate hikes on Wednesday evening is a typical example, as gold prices plummeted30个点，下周就是美联储利率决议，届时是和加拿大一样重启加息的话黄金下方还有很大的空间要走。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1960-1965Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1940-1935Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


Golden Operation Suggestion: Above1960Short nearby, stop loss1968, look at the goal1940Nearby; Below1940Long nearby, stop loss1932On the target1960That's it.