ATFXHong Kong stock market shrinks and rises, while the Hang Seng Index rises152spot

Although the stock market is good, there are risks in investing. We remind everyone to stay away from fraud when investing! Hong Kong stock market shrinks and rises, while the Hang Seng Index rises152Point or0.8%Report collection19,252Point. Rising Hang Seng Index2.3%Report collection3,921Point. The transaction amount in the large market has decreased to867Over HKD billion, recorded on the Hong Kong Stock Connect2.41A net inflow of HKD billion.AThe stock market includes the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen300Growth Enterprise Market Index(2123.961, -5.94, -0.28%)This week's rebound was lackluster, with the Hong Kong stock market rebounding somewhat this week, leading to disagreements between the onshore and offshore markets.

Zhongtai International believes that there has been no improvement in fundamentals and capital flow, and Hong Kong stocks are mainly focused on emotional recovery. China5The monthly foreign trade data is mixed, with exports on a year-on-year basis-7.5%Less than expected by the market-1.8%; Import year-on-year-4.5%Better than expected-8.0%However, it has been experiencing negative growth for three consecutive months, reflecting a weak motivation for domestic demand to repair5Monthly import ratio4Monthly growth6.1%It shows that demand is recovering, but the process is very slow.

In terms of funding, the offshore RMB, which reflects foreign investment sentiment, is still in the7.12to7.13The weak level of Hong Kong foreign exchange has weakened due to the widening of the Hong Kong US interest rate gap7.84The level of. The US dollar index is still104The above shows that funds have not yet flowed into Hong Kong stocks.

The current upward trend of Hong Kong stocks is still a repair of overly pessimistic sentiment in the early stage, and policy expectations, coupled with the upcoming visit of the US Secretary of State to China, provide a window for Hong Kong stocks to rebound. However, the upward space of Hong Kong stocks is still hindered by weak fundamentals, and the opening of upward space must be accompanied by endogenous momentum or improved profit expectations, otherwise relying on emotional recovery will be difficult to bring sustained momentum to the stock market.

5China's exports fell short of expectations in the month,5monthPMINew export orders fell to47.2It has been shown that external demand pressure is high. From the perspective of export varieties, the export growth rate of light industry manufacturing and real estate related consumer goods that performed well in the first two months has turned negative, while the export growth rate of electronics is still declining. However, the export growth rate of automobiles, ships, and other goods that mainly supported China's exports during the year has significantly slowed down. In terms of imports, the growth rate of electronic and electromechanical equipment continues to decline, indicating weak demand for large commodities or optional consumer durable goods, as well as coal, refined oil, and agricultural products(6.480, 0.02, 0.31%)Waiting is the main force supporting imports.

According to reports, several state-owned banks6month8Starting from today, the RMB deposit interest rate will be lowered,3Term5Lowering the annual fixed deposit and listing interest rate15Basis points. This is after last year9For the first time since the beginning of this month, banks have collectively lowered deposit interest rates, with clear policy signals. Due to the lack of confidence in income expectations and economic prospects among residents, their propensity to save has increased significantly, and the regularization of deposits has increased the cost of bank liabilities. With the decrease in deposit interest rates, the cost of bank liabilities will decrease, which is conducive to the expansion of net interest margin and the performance of bank stocks.

On the other hand, a decrease in deposit interest rates may help force deposits to move and return to the stock and real estate markets. However, if the expected return on other assets is lower than the deposit interest rate, the deposit may not necessarily move.

Although the cost of banks' debt side has decreased, it may not necessarily prompt the central bank to lower interest rates. ThereforeLPRInterest rates may not necessarily decrease. The central bank governor Yi Gang mentioned earlier that the current actual interest rate level is relatively appropriate. The central bank can adopt the "principle of reduction" to grasp the level of interest rates, which is in line with the "middle way", that is, relatively cautious in decision-making, leaving a certain amount of room for maneuver, and appropriately approaching the "prudent intuition". This means that unless the growth rate of the mainland economy is lower than5%The trend of the target, otherwise the central bank will inevitably be more cautious in lowering interest rates, and more inclined to release long-term liquidity through lowering reserve requirements.