Guide Metallographer:6.7今日黄金走势分析，消息面匮乏市场交投平淡

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(6month6day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1957.99dollar/Ounces, highest price1966.13dollar/Ounces, lowest price1954.21dollar/Ounces, closing price1963.27dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday5月纽约联储全球供应链压力指数录得-1.71, lower than the previous value-1.32.


　　世界银行周二发布的最新《全球经济展望》报告显示，由于利率上升、通胀和信贷条件收紧，2023年全球经济增长将放缓至2008年金融危机以来的最低水平。预计今年全球经济增速将从2022Of3.1%lower2.1%，下半年将出现明显放缓。发达国家的增长率预计将高于2008年金融危机期间的水平，新兴市场的增长将会更低。如果银行业压力加剧，或者通胀持续到促使央行继续加息，全球经济增长甚至可能比预期的还要弱。发达国家的借贷成本上升，可能导致更脆弱的发展中国家出现金融混乱。加息对美国经济产生影响的速度可能比之前的周期要慢。报告称，消费者积累的高储蓄缓冲和企业的高收益可能也会抑制借贷成本的上升。


　　高盛分析，对未来12个月美国经济衰退的可能性从35%Down to25%，并表示美联储“极有可能”在7月份将利率上调25个基点。此前，美国银行业压力减轻，以及美国总统拜登签署了一项法案，暂停了美国政府的债务上限，避免了可能的违约。高盛表示，新的债务上限只会导致“小额支出”的削减，这应该会使未来两年的整体财政动能“大致中性”，而银行业的压力只会使今年的实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长减少0.4%。该行目前预计，美联储的终端利率将在5.25%-5.5%，与德意志银行、瑞银等同行的预期相似。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day1.45Tons, current position is938.11Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is75.4%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is24.6%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is37.1%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is50.4%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is12.5%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　13:45Switzerland5Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00Germany4Monthly industrial output rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00britain5monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index after quarterly adjustment


　　14:45France4Monthly trade account


　　15:00经合组织公布经济前景展望报告


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly trade account


　　22:00Bank of Canada Announces Interest Rate Resolution


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日窄幅整理，日线十字星K线收盘，维持在区间内收缩整理，空间走不出来，今日将继续围绕小区间内震荡。日线连续的星K线，等待实体K线打破这种整理僵局。短期继续关注1985-1933区间内的拉锯，操作上维持在区间内高抛低吸。破位后再跟进。


　　4小时图布林道开始收缩当中，昨日维持在中轨附近拉锯，空间走得小，使得强弱延续不定，先看窄幅震荡待突破。小时图横向整理当中，轻微向上但空间持续性是个问题，加上美元短期强弱不定，目前单边方向不足，操作上还是区间卡点临盘以形态为准。


　　对于今日而言，黄金围绕1960附近震荡修复，做单需要耐心等待，而加息又将近，也不排除会进一步遭遇市场恶意洗盘的可能，对此，具体操作，首先关注上方1985-1986一线的多空分水岭，下方关注新低1933-1930一线的日线支撑。宽松震荡对待！若破位可顺势推进思路！


　　参考思路一：首次回踩至1952-1950Long, stop loss1945, Objective1960-1966Nearby;


　　参考思路二：黄金若强势下跌至1939-1937Long, stop loss1932, Objective1948-1956-1965Nearby;


　　参考思路三：晚间强势反弹至1983-1985Short selling, stop loss1990, Objective1975-1960-1952Nearby;


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