Ultima Markets：【行情分析】迫在眉睫的加息周期 等不及的...

本周重点关注品种--USD to CAD。

Fundamentally,上周末欧佩克宣布了最新的减产力度，出乎预料的是沙特阿拉伯宣布在7月份进行额外减产。目前来看减产的消息短期上支撑价格，若减产真的能完全执行，油价或将真的如市场所愿再度朝100美元进发。作为crude oil主要出口国，油价的潜在涨势势必影响加拿大经济结构，这对于明日加拿大央行的利率决议或将成为决定性因素。

this year1月，加拿大央行成为首家暂停加息的全球主要央行，但是随后过热的经济并未冷却下来，物价水平仍然保持强劲增长势头。在楼市快速好转、4月加拿大CPI再度上扬以及欧佩克减产的背景下，本周加拿大央行加息25基点的概率快速上升。

Technically,美元兑加元仍然处于高位震荡中，短期均线组始终在长期200日均线上方。目前下方的支撑岌岌可危。

Daily chart of US dollar to Canadian dollar, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

1小时周期上，美元兑加元在上次筑顶形成M头后，已经完成了M头两倍等比高度的跌幅。

USD to CAD1Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

虽然目前美元兑加元在完成旗形震荡后继续下行，但是下方跌幅有限，而ATR技术指标也未明确当前突破的有效性，因此长期布局上仍需耐心等待。

USD to CAD1Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level1.34407，

1.34407Upward bullish, first goal1.34671Second objective1.34878

1.34407Under bearish, first target1.34201Second objective1.33927

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