Guide Metallographer:6.6Today's gold trend analysis, US economic data below market expectations

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(6month5day)Low rebound, closing higher again, opening price1947.50dollar/Ounces, highest price1961.83dollar/Ounces, lowest price1937.90dollar/Ounces, closing price1957.98dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Monday4Monthly factory order rate recorded0.4%, lower than market expectations0.8%, previous value is0.9%； U.S.A5monthISMNon manufacturingPMIRecorded50.3, lower than market expectations52.3, previous value is51.9； U.S.A5monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value recorded54.9, lower than market expectations55.1, previous value is55.1.


Chief Business Economist, Global Market Intelligence, S&PChris Williamsonexpress,5In the month of the month, the US economy continued to show double-speed growth, with a sharp contrast between the sluggish manufacturing industry and the recovery of the service industry. As consumption shifts from goods to services, enterprises in industries such as tourism, entertainment, and leisure are enjoying a small boom after the pandemic. Survey data shows that,GDPThe annualized growth rate is slightly higher than2%The improvement in business expectations indicates that as summer enters, economic growth will remain strong. However, just as demand has shifted from goods to services, inflationary pressure is no exception. although5The inflation of commodity prices in the month has significantly declined, with only a slight increase, but service prices continue to rise significantly. This is due to soaring demand and insufficient operational capabilities(The latter is to some extent caused by labor shortages)Jointly driven. However, although revitalized service providers will make a big profit in the summer, the weakness of the manufacturing industry has raised concerns about economic resilience later this year, and the headwinds of rising interest rates and rising costs of living may have a greater impact on spending.


Analysis shows that due to a slowdown in new orders, the US service industry is5There has been almost no growth in the month, pushing the price index that measures companies paying for investment to a three-year low, which may help the Federal Reserve combat inflation. althoughPMIStill higher than49.9However, the slowdown last month exacerbated the risk of economic recession. The current service industry benefits from consumers shifting their spending from goods to goods. But as the Federal Reserve moves forward2022year3Accumulated interest rate hikes since the beginning of the month500Based on this, consumers may pay more attention to basic needs. The new order index for the service industry4Of the month56.1lower5Of the month52.9. As demand cools, inflation in the service industry has also slowed down. This is an attempt to lower the inflation rate to2%The target is good news for Federal Reserve officials. However, the service industry is still at the center of fighting inflation, as service prices are often more sticky and have a smaller response to interest rate hikes.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day1.45Tons, current position is939.56Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is75.9%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is24.1%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is34.5%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is52.4%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is13.1%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　12:30Federal Reserve of Australia Announces Interest Rate Decision


　　17:00eurozone4Monthly retail sales rate


　　22:00U.S.A5New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold fell yesterday and rebounded to close higher, with the daily line closing at a bullish center. At the beginning of the trading session, it continued the weak downward trend of last Friday and touched1938The front line is stable, but it cannot be broken1932The low point further opened up space, as the decline of the US dollar boosted the short-term rebound of gold. Closing at the end of the day1960Nearby. Combined with the track on the interval1985Lower rail1932.The closing price fluctuated at a neutral position, with a certain distance from the upper and lower tracks of the range. This week, we will continue to focus on breakthroughs within the range. At the beginning of the week, a range will be formed, and it will contract within the range repeatedly.


　　4When the hour fell, it rebounded with a single positive pull and fell into oscillation near the middle track, with local contraction, and the strength cannot be seen to continue for the time being. If you don't break through the range in the short term, you will maintain a sawtooth wash within the range, and short-term operations will be treated with a fluctuating checkpoint mentality. The point is at the front and the trend is at the back. The hourly chart's continuous positive rebound weakened the downward momentum. The short term enters oscillation again. It is currently unknown whether the oscillation of the neutral value will first rebound upwards or fall downwards. It is necessary to flexibly respond to the volatile market situation in combination with the intraday pattern, which further tests the grasp of entry points. The operation shall be based on the on-site situation.


Reference idea one: Gold rebounded to1960-1962Continue to short and stop loss1967, Objective1952-1940-1930Nearby;


Reference idea 2: Strong rebound in the evening1983-1985Short selling, stop loss1990, Objective1975-1960-1952Nearby;


Reference idea three: Strong decline on Tuesday1939-1937Keep going long, stop loss1932, Objective1948-1956nearby