Global Exchange Market0605：靓丽非农提振美指，日元大贬值而加元相对...

上周五，美元指数上涨0.46%, closing at104.5点。欧元贬值0.5%Closing price1.0708Point; Depreciation of the Japanese yen0.84%Closing price139.96Point; GBP depreciation0.61%Closing price1.2450点；澳元贬值0.21%Closing price0.6592Point; Depreciation of Swiss franc0.29%Closing price0.9113；新西兰元贬值0.21%The closing price is at0.6046Point; Canadian dollar depreciation0.02%Closing price1.3433点；不出所料，贬值幅度最大的是日元，日本央行超级宽松的货币政策，导致日元在对美元的币值变化中出现“易贬难升”的特征。加元贬值幅度最新，仅有0.02%，基本保持稳定。加元是商品货币，币值与国际油价正相关，当油价上涨时，加元呈现升值倾向。周日，OPEC+会议决定，从2024year1month1Solstice2024year12month31日，欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国crude oil日产量调整为每天4046.3Ten thousand barrels, compared to current production,2024The daily crude oil production has been reduced by about140万桶。会后，沙特又单方面宣布，从7Starting from this month, we will voluntarily reduce crude oil production again10010000 barrels/Voluntarily reducing crude oil production from now on5010000 barrels/Daily increase to15010000 barrels/日，为期一个月。受此消息影响，WTIPrice surge2.25%，对加元的升值起到助推作用。


1month12日开始，日元汇率进入反弹波段，目前仍在持续。反弹最高点已经触及超过0.5分位，正在向0.618分位移动。141.73是短期阻力位，当价格达到该水平时，有可能触发较为显著的下跌波段。伴随着日本名义CPI增速站上2%，关于日本央行将改变宽松政策的言论屡见报端，押注日元升值的资金蠢蠢欲动。然而，日本新任行长依然非常保守，其在公开场合多次表示短期内不会对货币政策进行调整。另外，下周美联储利率决议有可能停止加息，日元或将迎来短线升值的机会。


加元的长期底部早在2007年就已经形成，只不过15年左右的升值走势非常不顺利，经常出现长达两三年的回调波段。2020year3月份开始，加元汇率冲高失败，重新进入黑色震荡区间内，至今市价未能脱离该区间。如果震荡持续下去，震荡区间有可能形成长期顶部。加元震荡的另外一层因素是国际油价持续震荡。2022year11Since the beginning of the month,WTI价格上涨不突破84美元，下跌不突破65美元，市价以75美元为中枢持续震荡。稳定在相对高位的油价给加拿大提供了源源不断的财政收入，这才导致了加元相对美元“易升难贬”的特征。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-06-05